Raab out – Stewart the big gainer
The result 33 votes being required to stay in Gove 41Hunt 46Javid 33Johnson 126Raab 30Stewart 37 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 18, 2019
Maybe Raab’s the one with the best chance of stopping Johnson?
Kitchen Cabinet on choosing between the illness and the cure Boris Johnson’s election to the Conservative leadership looks almost assured. As I mentioned on a previous thread, Gavin Williamson looks to have done wonders for BoJo’s election prospects. If you are a Boris hater, I might have some good news for you. There is a way he may not be elected. The bad news (for many) is that the only way for that to happen is to have him face…
The CON race is not now about who wins but whether the next PM and leader gets properly tested and scrutinised
With Hunt as his postal ballot opponent he’d have a much softer ride than facing Stewart The recent history of PMs getting the job in a non-contested elections is not a good one. Gordon Brown got his coronation in June 2007 and avoided the probing that would possibly have highlighted his many vulnerabilities. The same happened in July 2016 with TMay. Both of them, I’d argue, would have been better PMs and better general election campaigners if they had had…
The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventually
It’s all about the timing Conventional wisdom has it that the favourite never wins Tory leadership races. In one sense, this is probably true. I don’t have the historic figures but before every leadership election since the Party moved away from the old Magic Circle method of leaders ‘emerging’, there’s a good case that the person who emerged the winner was not the one seen as most likely to succeed in the period before the election was called. However, that…
With Johnson looking a near certainty the big betting focus is on who’ll join him in the final 2
My 13/1 “final 2” bet on Stewart looking promising Last week I placed a small bet with Ladbrokes on Rory Stewart at 13/1 making the final two in the Conservative leadership contest. The response I got on Twitter was interesting and with most saying I was wasting my money. Almost whenever I publicise a bet people interpret this a prediction which is not the case. Like all these things it is worth repeating that bets are assertions of value. You…
Meanwhile in that other leadership race…
Dr Foxy on how the Swinson Davey battle is shaping up Understandably the focus of political interest and betting is on the contest to succeed Theresa May as leader of the Conservative Party, and most likely Prime Minister. This does rather overshadow the ongoing contest for the leadership of the Liberal Democrat Party, which finds itself in the rather unfamiliar position of rude health. Having had some excellent results in both Local Elections and in the recent Euro elections, Vince…
The revolution will not be televised
The sleeper topic that will corrode the government’s ratings https://twitter.com/hwyeb/status/1138752261901959174 Allow me to tell you the most middle class joke in existence. Q: What do gay men do in bed? A: Eat biscuits and listen to Radio 4, same as everybody else. OK, it’s all in the delivery. Radio 4, and the rest of the BBC, have long term concerns about the delivery of their services too: where is the money going to come from to fund them? This…
To show they’re back in the game the LDs need the Brecon & Radnor recall petition to succeed and to win the ensuing by-election
An early by-election test for the new CON leader? This weekend has seen the last intensive campaigning in the Brecon and Radnor constituency to persuade those on the electoral roll to sign the petition that the sitting MP br recalled. This would create an immediate vacancy and a Westminster by-election would be called. On Thursday evening the recall petition will be closed and should the 10% threshold be reached then there’ll be a Westminster by-election there – the largest constituency…