Ed Davey has a better than a 17% chance If you want to base a predictions on the Betfair market then Jo Swinson, the 39 year old ex Lib Dem minister in the Coalition, is heading for a clear victory in the Lib Dem leadership contest. Her opponent, former cabinet minister Ed Davey, is currently at just a 17% chance on the betting exchange with Swinson on an 83% one. As might be expected I know a lot of Lib…
Betdata.io The chart above shows the dramatic impact that last week’s debate have had on the fight for the Democratic nomination to take on Trump at WH2020. Before the 76 year old former VP, Jo Biden, looked unstoppable and now all the focus is on the two women senators who are seen to have performed best in the two nights of debate. Meanwhile new YouGov US polling has been published finding that both women were given a 59% rating to…
So… there’s an old white man, whose 2020 Presidential election price on Betfair is wrong. Perhaps very significantly wrong. And no, I’m not talking about Bernie Sanders or Donald Trump or Joe Biden. I’m talking about the Vice President, Mike Pence. On Betfair right now, he’s currently at 150-1. The traditional bookies have him at 100/1. Yeah, you might say, but Mueller’s over, and Trump’s not getting impeached. And his favourable numbers with Republicans are off the charts. So, why…
I am afraid that I have to disagree with David Herdson on his latest Saturday thread about YouGov understating Labour. Firstly you cannot judge pollsters’ based on their current surveys when less than 5 weeks ago they were tested against a real election involving real voters. In the two charts above I compare LAB and LD vote shares for the May Euros in their final published polls. Just two of them can claim to have come out of the election…
‘Never trust anybody who spells gonorrhoea correctly on the first attempt’ is a maxim that has served me well in life, I might revise that maxim to ‘Never trust anybody who says a no deal Brexit will be fine.’ I suspect many MPs are also guided by the latter maxim. If Boris Johnson does attempt to take the country out of the EU without a deal (and in contradiction to his claims during the 2016 referendum campaign) then I expect…
You need to watch politics in split-screen at the moment. In both Labour and the Conservatives, a group of politicians has come to a fork in the road. In both cases, there is no shortage of fellow party supporters telling them to fork off. Conservative Remainers have had a desperate few years. The referendum result was not the start of it. Well before they lost the referendum, they had lost their party. They have spent the last three years seeking…
Letter to B&R voters from ex-CON MP Chris Davies The start of a new politics? A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats who, of course, held the seat until GE2015. So unlike other previous elections there will be a single remain choice. Meanwhile, as can be seen from the Chris Davies…
Wikipedia A clear lead or struggling to be neck-and-neck? Three parties have dominated the coverage of opinion polling and major elections over the last three months. On one side, the Tories have clearly suffered a catastrophic loss, shedding more than half the support they had at the start of the year, losing more than 1300 councillors and then nearly all their MEPs in May. Against which, the Brexit Party has exploded out of nowhere to win the EP elections and…