Pete Buttigieg’s an interesting candidate but shouldn’t be a favourite

Pete Buttigieg’s an interesting candidate but shouldn’t be a favourite

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A 30-something gay small-city mayor should not be 14/1 to win WH2020 Precedent is a good guide but a bad determinant. To believe that something cannot happen because it hasn’t previously happened is to end up being unpleasantly surprised. It’s therefore possible that the Democrats could look past the current or former governors, senators and vice-president in order to select as their candidate someone who’s not just the mayor of a city the size of Chesterfield but who’s still in…

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Getting the MPs we deserve?

Getting the MPs we deserve?

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A guest slot from Harris Tweed In a rare moment of PB agreement in a recent thread, Casino_Royale and Nick Palmer, himself a former MP, discussed the shallow gene pool which provides too many of our MPs, and the party and parliamentary processes which aim – not always successfully – to keep them in check. Strong whipping, party patronage and a lack of local competition in their seats mean too many members can enjoy a trouble- and blame-free life on…

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The favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader, a Mr. Johnson, gets his knuckles wrapped for a fake polling report

The favourite to succeed TMay as CON leader, a Mr. Johnson, gets his knuckles wrapped for a fake polling report

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In January Mr. Johnson wrote in his Telegraph column that: “Of all the options suggested by pollsters – staying in the EU, coming out on Theresa May ’ terms, or coming out on World Trade terms – it is the last, the so-called no-deal option, that is gaining in popularity. In spite of – or perhaps because of – everything they have been told, it is this future that is by some margin preferred by the British public.” A reader…

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The PB/Polling Matters podcast analyses May’s EU elections – the contest that’s taken the political world by surprise –

The PB/Polling Matters podcast analyses May’s EU elections – the contest that’s taken the political world by surprise –

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look in detail at the prospects for EU parliamentary elections in the UK now that Brexit has been delayed up to a further 6 months. Listen to the episode below Follow this week’s guests: @keiranpedley @leobarasi

If there is an early general election punters have no clear view on the winner

If there is an early general election punters have no clear view on the winner

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Betdata.io chart of movement on the Betfair exchange On Betfair CON and LAB level pegging For those looking to the betting markets to give a pointer to how a new General Election will go then I’m sorry but the current position is that Labour and the Conservatives are rated at exactly the same level to win most seats. If this is correct, then the deadlock will continue and the political stalemate that has been British politics for many years appears…

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Mayor Pete takes the lead in New Hampshire amongst those nomination contenders younger than 72yo Trump

Mayor Pete takes the lead in New Hampshire amongst those nomination contenders younger than 72yo Trump

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While we have all been focused on the developments on Brexit there has been a lot of movement in the fight for the Democratic nomination for next year’s White House race. This starts the hot up in a few weeks when the first of the Dem Primary TV debate debates is held. The big sensation who has been making waves is the 37 year old mayor of a small city in Indiana, Pete Buttigieg who’s come from almost nowhere and…

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The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit betting markets

The overnight developments in Brussels barely move the Brexit betting markets

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Still the same stalemate but now with added time A quick look across the Brexit related betting markets suggest that there has been relatively little movement given the developments last night. That might be because Theresa May didn’t get her very short extension and neither did the EU leadership get their longer one. A no-deal Brexit now rated at a 14% chance which is barely changed. That UK will hold EU elections in May is up 3% to 95% but…

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Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as the French surrender

Trick or Treat? Reports that Brexit day moved to Halloween as the French surrender

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BREAKING: EU leaders have agreed a delay to Brexit until 31 October, with a review in June, according to EU diplomats. Follow live updates here: https://t.co/iRW5ZC1LSF — Alan McGuinness (@Alan_McGuinness) April 10, 2019 Earlier on this evening it looked like the French were going to ensure a No Deal Brexit on Friday but the rest of the EU bypassed them like the Germans bypassed the Maginot Line in 1940. https://t.co/Y2xCxlceG4 — TSE (@TSEofPB) April 10, 2019 Per EU source. France…

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