On the betting markets punters are becoming LESS convinced that there’ll be a 2019 General Election

On the betting markets punters are becoming LESS convinced that there’ll be a 2019 General Election

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From Betdata.io – the last month on Betfair GE year market But 2019 still a strong odds-on favourite As can be seen from the chart there has been a huge amount of volatility on the year of the next general election with punters starting to move back from 2019 which got to a 73% chance earlier in the week. As we know under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act there are two ways an election can be triggered ahead of 2022…

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Woodcock is right: Remain’s grand strategy is so muddled as to not exist

Woodcock is right: Remain’s grand strategy is so muddled as to not exist

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What use do Remainers hope another A50 extension would be put to? Boris Johnson’s Brexit plan is commendably clear: leave on 31 October without a deal. The clarity might be the only thing that’s commendable about it and it leaves many questions open about what happens into November and beyond but on the central point of Britain’s EU membership, the issue would be closed. Johnson and the rest of the government might argue that No Deal isn’t technically the government’s…

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Get ready for a weekend’s intense campaigning for the Westminster by-election that might never happen

Get ready for a weekend’s intense campaigning for the Westminster by-election that might never happen

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This weekend hundreds of LAB and LD activists will be heading for Sheffield Hallam, home of PB’s TSE, where there might or might not be a Westminster by-election in the next couple of months. This has been triggered by the statements last month by the man who won it for LAB at GE2017 that he plans to resign as an MP on September 3rd. Jared O’Mara was the person who took this off the ex-LD leader and Deputy PM, Nick…

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Elizabeth Warren soars ahead in the Democratic nomination betting after a poll puts her 11% ahead in Iowa

Elizabeth Warren soars ahead in the Democratic nomination betting after a poll puts her 11% ahead in Iowa

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Betdata.io chart of past three months on Betfair Exchange In an earlier post this week Robert emphasised the importance of the Iowa caucuses in the selection of the Democratic nominee. This is all because the state is the first to decide and voters there tend to pay much greater attention to the contenders at this stage than those states where the primaries are much later in the calendar. This week has been the Iowa State Fair and all the contenders…

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Trump and the inverted yield curve

Trump and the inverted yield curve

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    President Trump would seem to have an advantage over whoever the Democrats select as his 2020 challenger: since the Second World War, nine elected presidents have sought a second term, and seven of them succeeded. The two exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1980, and George H. W. Bush in 1992. In both cases, the US economy was performing badly in the lead-up to the election. US voters seem to be indulgent towards their incumbent presidents, but less so…

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The whole Corbyn GNU story is based on a false premise – that MP numbers are there for a no confidence vote to be passed

The whole Corbyn GNU story is based on a false premise – that MP numbers are there for a no confidence vote to be passed

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The US President who took over after Kennedy was assassinated, Lyndon Baines Johnson, was famed for his sayings that wonderfully summed up political situations one of which was that the first rule of politics was that its “practitioners need to be able to count”. If only MPs and the media circus had thought about that last night when Corbyn made his ludicrous pitch to try to embarrass new LD leader Jo Swinson. For the main requirement for the circumstances envisaged…

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Small minds and Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn’s latest gambit

Small minds and Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn’s latest gambit

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His letter’s a strategic mistake The real fight starts here. Jeremy Corbyn has written to other opposition party leaders suggesting that if he calls a vote of no confidence in the government, he stands ready to lead a temporary government to obtain an extension to the Article 50 notice and then call a general election. Perplexingly, this ecumenical offer has met with a cool reception. The Lib Dems have given him the thumbs down on the ground that he would…

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Labour has to face up to the blindingly obvious – the Corbyn brand is busted

Labour has to face up to the blindingly obvious – the Corbyn brand is busted

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Deltapoll July 27 2019 The biggest impediment to the movement is the man at the top The main challenge to LAB as it seeks to keep in the game is that its leader is dragging it down. Three weeks ago Deltapoll asked a supplementary question in its first post PM Johnson poll. How would you vote if Labour was led by someone other than Corbyn? The outcome is in the chart above. The detailed data from he latest Survation poll…

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