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Like the French strategy with the Maginot Line the Cummings & Johnson Brexit strategy might turn out to have a minor flaw

3/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

This is all very reminiscent of the French strategy with the Maginot Line, they weren't prepared for their opponents to go around them. https://t.co/cugJm1Vsfn — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 3, 2019 Or refuse to back early GE 'unless and until' the no-deal block is firmly on the statute book. — Peter Foster (@pmdfoster) September 3, 2019 The @BorisJohnson ‘no deal’ threat strategy is totally illogical when you think about it. No deal cannot BOTH be perfectly manageable (for U.K. audiences) and…

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Boris Johnson might just be a worthy successor to the UK Prime Minister from the second world war

3/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Today is the eightieth anniversary of the Anglo-French declaration of war on Germany. The Conservative Prime Minister had championed and overseen a ruinous foreign policy that had brought the United Kingdom and most of Western Europe to disaster, and things got a lot worse. Conservative MPs who criticised this policy were denounced in the media and ostracised. Sound familiar? But enough about Brexit, even Boris Johnson does love a good Brexit is like WWII analogy. I’m of the opinion that…

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Boris Johnson channels both Theresa May and Gordon Brown

2/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Nothing has changed. pic.twitter.com/aVYj3ZhO5y — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 2, 2019 Theresa May II — Alberto Nardelli (@AlbertoNardelli) September 2, 2019 He could at least have shown us all the new dog … — Dave Collins (@davidiancollins) September 2, 2019 Very reminiscent of Gordon Brown in 2007 allowing the hype of a snap election to build* then flat out denying he wanted an election *Heck one of Brown's MPs wrote at the time ‘Shortly there will be an election, in which…

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By George! Will BJ flop or will he last a long time?

2/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Will Boris Johnson continue to be Prime Minister until the 19th of November 2019? This is an interesting market from Ladbrokes, the one that caught my attention was Boris Johnson breaking George Canning’s record as the shortest serving Prime Minister. My initial thought was to back this market because he’s clearly goaded the anti No Dealers to take drastic action to honour the 2016 referendum campaign to Leave with a deal and with his government threatening to be lawbreakers instead…

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The Tories seem determined to blow up their own party

2/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s new administration has so far moved with speed and determination. That’s one reason why so many commentators seem taken in by its impression of tough-minded resolve and tactical acumen. But we shouldn’t be fooled. There are huge risks in the approach that Johnson and his right-hand man Dominic Cummings are taking, and they have made a series of mistakes that might give their opponents the last laugh. The first blunder the new-model Conservatives made actually predates…

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Breaking: The Conservative Party

1/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1168268494703603712 And me too I hope — Rory Stewart (@RoryStewartUK) September 1, 2019 Tory rebels hit back tonight ??Point out almost 1 in 4 of current cabinet voted against brexit deal under Theresa May??call this “sheer hypocrisy”??insists the threats aren’t working Source close to rebels: pic.twitter.com/qZA0CZMtPu — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) September 1, 2019 A PM ready to say goodbye to a whisker of a majority is a PM who might be ready to call an election… what’s the real…

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Local By-Election Summary : August 2019

1/9/2019 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Votes Cast, % Share, Change in votes and Seats : August 2019 Liberal Democrats 6,218 votes (33.94% +5.23% on last time) winning 5 seats (+1 seat on last time) Conservatives 5,362 votes (29.27% -2.66% on last time) winning 2 seats (-1 on last time) Labour 2,951 votes (16.11% -10.04% on last time) winning 0 seats (-1 on last time) Scottish National Party 1,582 votes (8.63% +2.88% on last time) winning 1 seat (unchanged on last time) Local Independents 824 votes…

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Induction Technique. Comparing and combining betting markets

1/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Write about what you know, they say. So I don’t normally write about American politics, about which I don’t pretend to have any special understanding. I’ll happily bet on it though. I’m going to break my habit now, to consider four related markets on Betfair and their interrelationship, to see if I can find some relative value. Let’s start with the simplest: the winning party for the 2020 presidential election. The last traded price for the Democrats was 1.92, implying…

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