In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40%+ chance to a 29% one since MPs returned after the summer recess

In the General Election betting a CON majority drops from a 40%+ chance to a 29% one since MPs returned after the summer recess

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What happened when MPs took back control Until the afternoon of Tuesday September 3rd everything had been going well for Cummings and Johnson. The proroguement of Parliament cutting down the numbers of days before the October Brexit deadline when Johnson and his team would be subject to parliamentary scrutiny had been drastically slashed and all seemed on target. Then MPs moved to take control of the Commons agenda allowing the Benn bill to go through – a measure designed to…

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Once again political gamblers have been overstating the chances of an early general election

Once again political gamblers have been overstating the chances of an early general election

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Chart via the betdata.io The favourite month has gone from September to October to November to December and now 2020 For decades or as long as I have been political betting one of the characteristics of political gamblers is that they overstate the chances of an early General Election being called. Somehow it is always easier to make the case in your own head that one is going to happen soon than that it probably won’t. So over the past…

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Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen

Halloween’s going to be a massive moment in British politics and it is hard to predict what’ll happen

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When I went on my holiday two and a half weeks ago TSE and others made a big deal about this being an occasion when big political stories seem to break. Well that the events of the last two and a half weeks have more than proved that theory. Well I’m now heading back overland from Andalusia after my holiday in the Osborne (no relation) sherry town of El Puerto de Santa María and will be back in the UK…

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Swinson’s great LD gamble – making cancelling Brexit party policy

Swinson’s great LD gamble – making cancelling Brexit party policy

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Liberal Democrat members have overwhelmingly voted to cancel Brexit, should their party come to power at the next general electionhttps://t.co/mXWVMYv2lX pic.twitter.com/bvoNzXkTOo — ITV News Politics (@ITVNewsPolitics) September 15, 2019 Inevitably this new policy agreed to at the party conference in Bournemouth today is going to be attacked for being anti-democratic. The big question is how will it impact electoraly assuming there’s an early general election? Even the only Green MP, Caroline Lucas, who you would have thought to be an…

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Warren maintains her strong betting favorite position for the Democratic nomination

Warren maintains her strong betting favorite position for the Democratic nomination

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But Biden continues to top the polls With all the focus on the United Kingdom’s political crisis PB’s not covered the 2020 American presidential race for some time. At this stage, of course, this is all about who the Democratic party will choose to take on Donald Trump in November next year. This, as we all know, is a long process and the fight is on at the moment to establish who the front runners will be when voting actually…

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The Bad Boys Of Brexit. A review

The Bad Boys Of Brexit. A review

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The “Bad Boys Of Brexit” relates the adventures of Nigel Farage, Aaron Banks and Andy Wigmore and the Leave.eu campaign from July 2015 to the referendum and beyond, with a later addendum taking the story up to the May election announcement . It’s told in diary format as written by Aaron Banks, one of the leaders of Leave.eu. The blurb tells us that “every Remainer should steel themselves to read it, because the mindset that it captures…is driving change on…

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Before you bet on the next Lib Dem leader market just remember the next leader might be in another party right now

Before you bet on the next Lib Dem leader market just remember the next leader might be in another party right now

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https://twitter.com/JournoStephen/status/1172948987680382976 Surreal to think that fewer than three months ago Sam Gyimah was running to be Tory leader (and PM) and now he's a Liberal Democrat. — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 14, 2019 Bold prediction. The next Lib Dem leader is currently i) Not on this list ii) Not a member of the Lib Dems iii) Currently a member of another party pic.twitter.com/WPwZPWeKHT — TSE (@TSEofPB) September 14, 2019 All things considered I think I’ll give this market a swerve until…

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