Warren maintains her strong betting favorite position for the Democratic nomination

Warren maintains her strong betting favorite position for the Democratic nomination

But Biden continues to top the polls

With all the focus on the United Kingdom’s political crisis PB’s not covered the 2020 American presidential race for some time. At this stage, of course, this is all about who the Democratic party will choose to take on Donald Trump in November next year.

This, as we all know, is a long process and the fight is on at the moment to establish who the front runners will be when voting actually starts in February.

Although the first state to decide, Iowa, doesn’t make its decision until February 3rd the main contenders are slugging it out to boost their chances in the early primary states.

The latest event, before the weekend, was the third major Democrat TV debate. This time the number of candidates involved was restricted to 10 which meant it was held on a single night enabling the frontunner, Joe Biden and his main opponent, and Elizabeth Warren, to face each other on live TV for the first time in the campaign.

The debate lasted for three hours and it was clear, near the end, that the extended time involved was taking its toll particularly on the ex-VP and current leader in the polling, soon to be 77, Joe Biden. This clip in which Biden talks “record players” is being much repeated by those who question whether Biden is simply too old to cope with the demands of a prolonged campaign.

Even before he formally entered the race Biden headed the polls on likely Democratic contenders and this has been maintained. But the gap has been narrowing and in the latest YouGov US poll he’s running level with Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.

Biden’s poll position is not reflected in the betting. His chance of winning the nomination is now at 22% on Betfair against 37% for Warren. Behind them are Bernie Sanders, Senator Kamala Harris and the 37 year old Pete Buttigieg.

I have now cashed out of all my bets, taking some profits, on the nomination and I’m waiting for the Iowa caucuses which will be the first really big pointer about what’s going to happen when real voters have to make a choice. I’ve got a feeling that Biden will struggle there and Warren and Pete Buttigieg might do well.

Mike Smithson


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