Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change

Going back to your constituencies. Alastair Meeks on not taking seat predictors too seriously in times of change

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Obviously, you should not treat opinion polls very seriously at all, especially when no general election is on hand. Respondents are being asked an artificial question (there is no general election tomorrow) with no real-world consequences hanging on their answer.  You might be getting a general expression of enthusiasm for a particular credo, a message to the voter’s normal choice or simply a casual choice made without much thought, and that’s before you get into the methodological adjustments that the pollsters…

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In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (and probably PM)

In around seven weeks time we shall have a new Tory leader (and probably PM)

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Conservatives announce first round ballot for the leadership race next Thursday, then all wrapped up the following week to decide final two. New PM week beginning July 22 pic.twitter.com/k9nWG5blat — Sam Coates Sky (@SamCoatesSky) June 4, 2019 The first round of voting begins a week on Thursday. Today the Conservative party announced the schedule and rules in the contest to succeed Mrs May. The biggest changes are the nomination threshold which seems to rule out five candidates based on the…

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The successor to Sir Vince Cable might currently be in another party

The successor to Sir Vince Cable might currently be in another party

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Heidi Allen, and the former Labour MP Chuka Umunna, are among those thought to be considering defecting to Lib Dems https://t.co/JdN3aRrrCn — Lisa O'Carroll (@lisaocarroll) June 4, 2019 I’m told Sarah Wollaston is leaving Change UK. — (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) June 4, 2019 It appears Change UK might be about to undergo some fundamental change, The Guardian report that Up to half of Change UK’s MPs are poised to leave the fledgling political party after its dismal performance in the European elections….

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The Trump buzzword bingo market

The Trump buzzword bingo market

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Donald Trump is 3/1 to mention "Liverpool" during his press conference tomorrow.Anything else we should add to the Buzzword Bingo list?https://t.co/7uuzMAdMxE pic.twitter.com/4P6QlWo49Y — Ladbrokes Politics (@LadPolitics) June 3, 2019 What will Trump say in his press conference today? Because of my consistent record in these buzzword bingo markets I view these markets as my contribution to the Christmas bonus fund for Shadsy even before we consider that someone as volatile and rambling as Donald Trump is the focus of this…

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This seems like a good way to get a 20% return in around a month or so

This seems like a good way to get a 20% return in around a month or so

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Given what is stake and the egos involved I cannot see the candidates not taking this contest to the members so that’s why I’m backing the 1/5 Paddy Power are offering. After Leavers conspired to hand the crown to Mrs May in 2016 and bypassing the members there’ll be a desire for the members to take part, as a Tory member there’s a real desire amongst my fellow members to have the final say, something that I’d expect to be…

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Michael Gove – the case against

Michael Gove – the case against

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From a PBer teacher who remembers when Gove was EdSec Michael Gove has many admirers – most notably, several on this forum, including a former Labour MP and a number of Conservative and UKIP voters. He is an experienced minister, having held office for nine years (one of them outside the cabinet). He is able, articulate, polite, and from a very modest background. He is well connected in the media, has a remarkable imagination and drive, and stands out, frankly,…

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Andy Warhol was wrong, in the future everyone will stand to be Tory leader

Andy Warhol was wrong, in the future everyone will stand to be Tory leader

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I am running to be Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister – go to https://t.co/MShWaI9qmR to join the journey of national renewal. #BackSamsPlan pic.twitter.com/7mVkytZAm6 — Sam Gyimah (@SamGyimah) June 2, 2019 Sam Gyimah might end up feeling like a bacon eater in a vegan restaurant if he thinks backing a people’s vote will help him in the Tory leadership contest. https://t.co/PqYLtPRdDV — TSE (@TSEofPB) June 2, 2019 But like Rory Stewart I think Sam Gyimah might be focussing on winning…

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The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in the lead

The three post Euros polls have had three different parties in the lead

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In the past couple of days there have been three Westminster voting intention polls from different firms each with a different party in the lead. This is unprecedented. Here's Deltapoll https://t.co/nsMGtujNI8 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 2, 2019 Opinium has BXP ahead with the LDs in 4th. In its final Euros poll Opinium had the highest rating of any firm for BXP – 38% against the 31% that they actually got. It had the LDs on 15% 5 below the…

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