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Another conference boost for Jo Swinson – this time from LAB

23/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Corbyn the opposition leader with the worst leader ratings ever gets his way The big political news has been the Labour conference decision to reject a move that would have seen the party take out-and-out Remain position in the run-up to the likely early general election. Delegates rejected a composite motion that would have seen the party pledge to campaign for remain. Whether this was electorally wise only time will tell but my guess is that the biggest cheers for…

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If this YouGov polling is correct then tactical voting looks set to play a big part in an early general election

23/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

As a general rule I really don’t like surveys on things like tactical voting because we are asking a pollster to do something that’s highly complicated and we should retain our sectptism. A concern on the polling above is that members of the YouGov panel might have a tendency to be more politically involved than the norm and therefore, possibly, more likely to state that they would use their vote in a tactical way. The first polling to feature in…

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With a possible LAB leadership in prospect Laura Pidcock could be the one to get Jezza’s backing

23/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Her odds make her an interesting bet Of all the political betting markets available one that we haven’t looked at for a very long time is on who will succeed Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the Labour Party. He has looked totally secure in his position even though he has recently seen his personal poll ratings dropped to record lows. Corbyn, now 70, doesn’t appear to be enjoying the job that he has occupied since his shock victory in the…

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Iowa’s most accurate pollster has Warren in the lead for the first time

22/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

She’s now 38% on Betfair for the nomination Those who have followed American politics for some time will be aware that Anne Selzer polls for the Des Moines register have over the decades built up a strong reputation for accuracy in polling the Iowa Caucuses. The issue here is ensuring that samples are made up of voters who will actually participate – attending a meeting in their precinct at 7pm on the stated day. The Selzer approach seem to get…

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Labour’s general election plan on Brexit- it looks as though the fudge will continue

22/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Surely a clear position is required? As well as the side shows of the move against Watson that were pulled and the top Corbyn advisor who has quit the the big story about behind the secenes in Brighton appears to have been the policy, or non-policy, on Brexit. We know where Johnson’s Tories stand and Swinson’s LDs but if you are looking for clarity from what is currently the official opposition then you are probably going to be disappointed. Somewhat…

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Chronicle of a bet foretold Part 2

22/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

It is 11am on September 21st 2019 as I write this. Earlier in the year I wrote an article about fixed-odds betting used to insure against political risk. I finished by saying I would investigate other modes, specifically currency conversion. This is that investigation. PREAMBLE The investigation took the form of recollections of previous betting combined with consideration of new modes. Time constraints meant that some modes could only be briefly examined so conclusions from this article should be taken…

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Labour’s leadership machinations could be a pointer that an early change is being planned

21/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

So far I have not been tempted to take the Betfair 26% that Corbyn will step down as LAB leader during 2019. But an early exit for Mr Corbyn is how some of the machinations ahead of the party conference both last night and this morning are being interpreted. Why the party had to change its position on a move that seemed to be about abolishing the role of deputy leader as a means of clipping Watson’s wings we do…

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The hurricane on Labour’s horizon

21/9/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Labour can’t rely on election campaign miracles every time As Labour gathers for its annual attempt to spread a veneer of forced goodwill over ruthless power-plays, rather like a Game of Thrones family Christmas, they ought to be asking a rather different introspective question than ‘how does Momentum increase its control?’. They should be asking ‘how do we get out of this disastrous polling position?’. They almost certainly won’t. Because the truth is that Labour’s polling position – buttressed by…

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