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Where the Cummings “People vs Parliament” plan might stumble: LAB voters significantly less concerned about Brexit

30/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

How will this affect the campaign? There seems to be little doubt that the Tories will take hits from the SNP and the Lib Dems in the coming General Election. On top of that there could be messy situations in seats where Tory MPs who have been sacked stand again under a different flag potentially splitting the blue vote. If the Tories are to stay in the game and possibly win a majority then they need to take LAB seats…

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How strong is Trump’s Senate firewall?

29/9/2019 Editor Comments 0 Comment

A guest slot from Fishing Almost three years ago, a few days after Trump was elected, I wrote a thread on this site saying that the Democrats would be able to find an excuse to impeach Trump if they gained control of the House in 2018 for that reason, 2019 would be the peak year of danger for Trump in this respect but I expected that the Senate would acquit, because of its likely Republican majority following the Midterms. Given…

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The booby trap. Prime Ministers under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act 2011

29/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

We are used to American presidents dominating their country’s politics. “Commander in chief” can be understood in more than one way, given how the role has developed. It was not always thus. For most of the nineteenth century, American presidents were chiefly distinctive for their lack of distinction. In the sixty year period between Andrew Jackson to Teddy Roosevelt, only Abraham Lincoln really stood out for his achievements. Taken as a group, they were strikingly anonymous. Taking the very broadest…

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A confidence vote to get rid of PM Johnson could happen next week

29/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Betfair 69% on it taking place this year looks a decent bet A leading SNP MP, Stewart Hosie, has told the BBC that there could be a confidence vote in Johnson as early as next week. If this happens, given the current Commons numbers, Johnson would almost certainly lose and then, under the FTPA, there would a fortnight under which an alternative government could be formed and if not a general election would be triggered. From what I can…

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LAB close the gap by 4 with Opinium

28/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Latest Opinium hasCON 36% – 1LAB 24% +3LD 20% +3BRX 11%-1 — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 28, 2019 Latest Opinium poll has the LDs the first choice of Remain voters, ahead of LAB, for the first time — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 28, 2019 Johnson leads Corbyn by 37% to 16% as to who would make the best PM – Opinium — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) September 28, 2019 More to follow

Tommyknockers. The death of the old Conservative party

28/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Stephen King has produced some dross. One of his worst is a book called Tommyknockers, the premise of which is that an alien spacecraft is found buried in the woods in Maine, and it then starts a creeping possession of the minds and bodies of the local townsfolk, until finally they mutate into the form of the aliens who flew in it. Stephen King himself has stated that he regards this as an awful book. Nevertheless, it provides a good…

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We shouldn’t look much past Lindsay Hoyle as next Speaker

28/9/2019 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

But if there is to be another female Speaker, Eleanor Laing is the better bet The last few weeks seem to have been filled with as many attempts to defy convention and accepted norms of rules and behaviour within Westminster as possible. There’s a certain irony, therefore, that in the election to replace John Bercow as Speaker, a convention many MPs may feel bound to respect a convention – that the Speakership should alternate between the main parties – which…

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Europe and the Security Schism

27/9/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

After several centuries of slowly drifting apart, the Eastern Roman Empire’s Orthodox Church and what became known as the Roman Catholic Church of Rome split. This difference, due to arguments about doctrine and pre-eminence of Pope and Patriarch, ended up having continental consequences. The gulf widened over time, until the Fourth Crusade in the 13th century. Due to the persuasive brilliance (if strategic foolishness) of Venice’s doge, Enrico Dandolo, this holy war was diverted from Jerusalem to target Constantinople. A…

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