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On the day of Johnson’s Brexit plan the latest polling on how voters view the referendum decision

2/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The 9% Brexit wrong gap is one of the biggest seen since 2016 This is YouGov’s tracker which has been asked least twice a month since the referendum in June 2016. The format of the question has been unchanged and in the early day just about all the findings had Brexit being “right”. That changed in late 2017/q18 and so far this year Brexit “right” has trailed. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab – a contender for the next election’s “Portillo moment”?

2/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Ladbrokes A prominent Brexiteer in a strong Remain seat The Foreign Secretary and former CON leadership contender, Dominic Raab, has been a rising star in the Tory party and now holds one of the top seats in Johnson’s cabinet. He’s also a strong Brexiteer. There’s nothing wrong with that except that his seat, Esher and Walton, borders the SW London Lib Dem seats of Twickenham and Kingston and at the referendum in 2016 the votes split 41.57% Leave to 58.43%…

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Once again the betting moves to the general election taking place later rather than sooner

2/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Chart betdata.io My money’s on 2020 or beyond For those who have followed the general election timing market this has become a familiar theme. The money moves to what appears to be the first possible month and then after a short period as betting favourite time appears to be running out and so we move onto the next option. Currently December 2019 is the favourite but apart from all the issues of holding an election in the run-up to Christmas,…

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New YouGov polling on party Brexit awareness highlights the challenges facing LAB

1/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

With the coming general election looking set to be a battle between parties that back Leave and and those that back Remain this YouGov polling on perceptions of the Brexit stance of each party looks be a good pointer. As can be seen Johnson/Cummings have made progress with Leave voters that the Tories are pro-Brexit a finding that could be important given the Farage pitch of “we are more pure on Brexit than Johnson” My guess, however, is that on…

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Endgame. The death of the referendum mandate draws near

1/10/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1168479741491462144 Leavers have an apparently compelling pair of arguments. Certainly, those arguments completely satisfy them. First, they argue that everyone agreed that the referendum result would be implemented. Secondly, they argue that the wording on the ballot paper was clear, and that all that is required is for Britain to leave the EU. So, what’s the hold-up? It would be churlish to take issue with these arguments. So let me be that churl. For those two arguments are mutually contradictory….

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Heading for Labour minority government?

1/10/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

At the time of writing, the Betfair odds for a Labour minority government after the expected election are 3.5 (7-2). After the Tory conference there should be a further Tory bounce, making the odds perhaps 3-1. This is, I think, too long. Here’s why. It’s generally expected and evidenced by numerous polls that the Conservatives will lose seats in Scotland to the SNP and to the Lib Dems in the south. They hope that these losses will be compensated for…

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Polling analysis: One in three CON GE2017 Remainers now say they’ll vote Lib Dem

30/9/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Team Cummings-Johnson working hard for Jo Swinson’s party Thanks to Paula Surridge of the University of Bristol for first picking up this trend that an increasing and now sizeable chunk of CON Remainers from 2017 have now switched to the LDs. This is based on Opinium polls which very helpfully provide cross tabs for what those sampled did at the last election broken down into their referendum choice. The trend is such that former CON voters could be rivalling LAB-LD…

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An interim government would need more than just a PM

30/9/2019 Editor Comments 0 Comment

There has been much speculation in recent weeks about the possibility of the opposition parties and ex-Tory refuseniks coming together to oust this government and install an interim government, tasked with a very limited role of negotiating an Article 50 extension, promptly followed by a GE. (A variant of this proposal would have the interim government stay in office long enough to call a second EU referendum, but that seems vanishingly unlikely). Like many suggestions for resolving the impasse, this…

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