The Leave EU ad that’s causing a lot of controversy
What do PBers think?
On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that a general election will happen BEFORE a UK exit from the EU
There are too many examples in political betting when favourites have not won to make the assertion that betting can be predictive. What historical trends do show, as in the above betdata.io chart, is how those ready to risk their cash on the Betfair exchange are seeing things at a given moment. As is reflected above over the past six months there have been periods when the money has been going on a UK exit happening first and when a…
With 23 days to go punters make it a 21% chance that the UK will leave the EU this month
And another ex-CON MP joins the LDs This is all getting very tight. A new working day starts and there are just 23 to go before the article 50 deadline comes into being with the UK either leaving the EU or a further extension is agreed to. The above betdata.io chart shows that the betting money on Betfair going on the UK not actually leaving on the due date. This is the busiest current UK political betting market and I…
Corbyn would be taking a massive gamble calling an election when he’s so far behind in the leader ratings
As has been remarked upon many times recently we are in a totally unprecedented situation when it comes to calling the next general election. Following Corbyn’s repeated reluctance to take the bait in September he, effectively, is the one who will decide when the country’s next general election will be held Johnson simply does not have the votes to reach the required two-thirds of all MPs as laid down by the Fixed-Term Parliament Act. If he wants to go to…
Betting opens on Beaconsfield which almost certainly will be one of the top constituency markets at the general election
Ladbrokes make it CON 5/6: Grieve 5/6 The news at the weekend that the Liberal Democrats have decided to stand aside in the Beaconsfield constituency at the general election in order to give the incumbent MP, Dominic Grieve, a clear run has inevitably set off a betting market which looks likely to be a big one. Grieve, the former Attorney-General, has played a big part in opposing Johnson’s plans for Brexit for which he was booted out of the Conservative…
“National Populism: The Revolt Against Liberal Democracy” – a review
INTRODUCTION The book is an overview of “National Populism”, the umbrella term the authors use to describe a political stance of increasing electoral salience in Europe and North America, familiar to us as an explanation for Brexit and Trump. The authors are Roger Eatwell of Bath University and Matthew Goodwin of the University and Kent: both are experts in academic study of the right and all its flavours. The book is a summary of their academic studies, expanded into a…
My 500/1 tip might just turn out be a winner
The Commons Speaker has emerged as the new favourite in the race to take over from Boris Johnson if there is a vote of no confidence https://t.co/GmJh5ergIV — Times Politics (@timespolitics) October 6, 2019 This morning’s Sunday Times is reporting John Bercow has been proposed for the role of Britain’s caretaker prime minister, as opposition parties plot to sidestep Jeremy Corbyn and form a “government of national unity” composed entirely of prominent backbenchers. The Commons Speaker has emerged as the new…
Will Dominic Cummings still be senior adviser to Boris Johnson on New Year’s Day?
Will the PM have more Cummings or goings? This market by Paddy Power on Boris Johnson’s adviser Dominic Cummings should attract a lot of attention given the prominence of Mr Cummings and his publicity shy nature that can only be rivalled by Paddy Power. It is understandable why No is favourite in this market, during the summer it was reported that Mr Cummings also suggested that he may leave his role after Britain exits the European Union on October 31….