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The mood changes on Brexit but the devil will be in the detail

11/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

A UK Brexit by the end of the year now 38% betting favourite Judging by today’s front pages the prospect for a deal on the UK’s withdrawal from the EU look better than ever. Certainly Johnson’s meeting with his Irish counterpart on the Wirral yesterday looks very promising but at the moment we do not know exactly what concessions have been made and whether that will be acceptable to the DUP. A political problem of course is that there are…

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The betting markets still make December favourite for the general election but the gap has narrowed

10/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After the Alastair Meeks post earlier today here is the latest betdata.io chart of movements on the “Month of the General Election” market. As can been seen December is still favourite but it has narrowed. Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

The impeachment polling’s getting worse for Trump

10/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Half of Americans now want him out There’s been another series of anguished Tweets from the incumbent of the White House following the latest impeachment polling commissioned by the channel that used to be his greatest supporter – Fox News. This latest survey is in line with other recent polls and there’s little doubt that voters are turning against him. Meanwhile another great supporter from the past, Matt Drudge of the Drudge Report which acts as a hard right news…

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The pressure mounts from Britain’s biggest car manufacturer

10/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

NEW: Nissan Europe chairman Gianluca de Ficchy has said a no-deal Brexit would put its entire business model in Europe “in jeopardy” and that it “won’t be sustainable”. — Josh Halliday (@JoshHalliday) October 10, 2019 De Ficchy said the firm was well prepared operationally for “a crisis situation” but that “the first thing we need to have is clarity,” adding: “My message is that today as a business we do not have a clear understanding on the future evolution of…

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Going long. Why a 2019 election is a lot less likely than gamblers seem to think

10/10/2019 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Let us embark on a voyage of discovery and fantasy. Imagine, if you will, that you are Jeremy Corbyn. You are to retreat to your allotment for the day to clear your mind of the ephemeral nonsense of Westminster and to plan strategically. As you cycle past a couple of your favourite manhole covers, you start to turn your mind to the burning question: on what basis do you want to conduct the next election? We need to conduct this…

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The pact that will make the Commons seat predictors a lot less useful next time

9/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Heidi’s pro-Remain electoral deal could impact on 70+ seats A story that’s got hidden in all the Brexit news was this on SkyNews about Heidi Allen, the South Cambridgeshire ex-CON MP who this week joined the LDs. She told the news channel that Remain-backing parties, the LDs, GRN and PC, have come to an agreement whereby only one of them will compete in 70+ key seats in England and Wales. Also agreed is that these parties will not put up…

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The polling trend that suggests a Cummings “People v Parliament” battle over Brexit might struggle

9/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The Evening Standard is carrying an analysis this afternoon of how opinion over Brexit has moved since the referendum in 2016. It is based on 300 polls and responses to its “Brexit right or wrong” and how respondents would now vote. What helps this analysis is that it is based on so many polls and does show a smallish but significant shift. The report points out that since GE2017 in J 204 out of 226 poll have Remain ahead, with…

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It’s looking like a no-deal brexit or else an Article 50 extension

9/10/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

If the front pages have this right then the chances of Johnson getting his deal through look very thin indeed and so the only options remaining are a no-deal Brexit or else it’s an Article 50 extension. The latter, of course, would breach the the deadlines that Johnson set for himself on taking over at Number 10 and the consequences of such a move are very hard to fathom. The big plan, I guess, is for there to be an…

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