By the end of the week we just might have a better idea of which of these Brexit options will be the winner

By the end of the week we just might have a better idea of which of these Brexit options will be the winner

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Ladbrokes And we could see moves for a confirmatory referendum The phrase from the mid-1960s originated by the then LAB general election winner and PM, Harold Wilson that “a week is a long time in politics” has continued to have resonance over the decades. No doubt we will he hear references to it this week when so much is on the agenda. There are so many unknowns. Will what was agreed between the UK and Irish PMs at the meeting…

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The Tyranny of Low Expectations

The Tyranny of Low Expectations

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It is generally a good idea, when facing severe criticism from an inquiry, to concede with as much good grace as possible, to keep your immediate thoughts about the idiocy of the judge to yourself and not to try and justify the behaviour which has been criticised. No good will come of it: you will look like someone paying lip service to the findings who really thinks you’ve done nothing wrong. It is advice which the Metropolitan Police singularly failed…

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Six of the top seven in the betting on Corbyn’s successor are women

Six of the top seven in the betting on Corbyn’s successor are women

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Chart of Betfair exchange prices from betdata.io How will leadership hopefuls vote on the key Commons brexit moves? With Corbyn’s announcement that he’ll step down if he fails to lead LAB to victory in the general election there’s renewed interest in the betting on who will be the successor. We could be only a few months from a contest. Two factors stand out. Firstly there’s a widespread view within the movement, including from the boss of UNITE, that LAB needs…

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New Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gains made at GE2017 and support for independence at 50%

New Scotland only poll has the Tories losing most of the gains made at GE2017 and support for independence at 50%

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New Scotland only poll by Panelbase for the Sunday Times find support for independence at 50% and the Tories losing the majority of Scottish Westminster seats won at GE17 https://t.co/syj1N2Kmdr pic.twitter.com/ASOz17y6qr — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 13, 2019 Scottish Westminster voting intentions with changes from GE2017 in Scotland SNP 39% +2.1 CON 21% -7.6 LAB 20% -7.1 LD 13% +6.2 GRN 2% +1.8 BREX 5% Bad news for both Boris and Jezza but positive news for Jo At the past…

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Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing for the WH2020 nomination

Two videos from the two prominent Senators who are competing for the WH2020 nomination

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At evens  for the nomination Warren’s odds are too tight Amy Klobuchar’s odds of 300/1 are too long At this stage in a White House race odds of evens on a contender to win the nomination ten months hence are just too tight. So much can happen in the intervening period and it won’t be until Iowa on February 3rd next year that we start to get real voter numbers. There’s also the question as to whether Warren’s left wing…

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Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th

Trump’s unhinged behaviour won’t invoke the 25th

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His mental health is too difficult to assess and there are other, better routes When Donald Trump was merely the cartoon boss on the Apprentice, he hammed up his performance with the very successful catchphrase “You’re fired” – although it turned out he really was playing himself all along. Trump’s administration has been a revolving door of appointments amid laudatory comments, followed by resignations and sackings and associated Trumpian bad-mouthing of his former colleagues. In around three years, Trump has…

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At the end of the tunnel

At the end of the tunnel

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If anyone is wondering what a negotiating “tunnel” is, it’s just Brussels jargon for trying a bit harder not to leak everything — Jon Stone (@joncstone) October 11, 2019 One of the many quirks of Brexit is that things look brightest when we’re in a tunnel. The announcement on Friday that the government’s latest proposals had gone into private intensive discussions caused market sentiment to soar, as well as the hopes of many political observers. What does it all mean? …

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2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

2020 or later now betting favourite for when the next general election will be held

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On a big political day the money on Betfair, according to the detdata.io has been going on the next general election taking place next year or later. This option has just edged December from the favourite slot. I’ve never been convinced of December because staging such a vote when the day’s are shortest and voters attentions are focused on the holiday never looked like a possibility. Meanwhile Corbyn has announced that he’ll step down as LAB leader if his party…

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