By two to one the voters think the Brexit referendum should not have been held

By two to one the voters think the Brexit referendum should not have been held

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Fascinating finding from @OpiniumResearch 'Brexit referendum should never have been called, say majority of voters'https://t.co/Tgrgm69kyA — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 26, 2019 Hindsight is a wonderful thing Today’s Observer is reporting that Twice as many people now think it would have been better never to have held a referendum on Brexit than believe it was a good idea, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. Asked to consider the difficulties the government has had in reaching an agreement, 57% of UK adults…

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Betting on the turnout at the next general election

Betting on the turnout at the next general election

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Ladbrokes have a market up on the turnout at the next general election and I can understand why the 65% to 70% band is the favourite as it is the band at what turnout has been at every general election this decade. If Boris Johnson is granted his desire and we have a December general election we will have a first general election in forty-five years that hasn’t been held in the April to June window. There’s a belief amongst…

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The LDs propose plan that would give Johnson a December election

The LDs propose plan that would give Johnson a December election

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? NEW: A new plan tonight to offer Boris Johnson the pre-Christmas election he craves. ? The Lib Dems have drawn up a bill that would allow Johnson to secure a December election with a simple majority of MPs. Crucially, the SNP will back it. THREAD. 1/6 pic.twitter.com/gCWe9pwfPF — Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) October 26, 2019 Their plan would be that the bill, if adopted by Johnson, could be taken through parliament on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. Parliament dissolves next Monday. Election…

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If there is no General Election then Bassetlaw could be the next big electoral test

If there is no General Election then Bassetlaw could be the next big electoral test

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A Tory by-election gain would be in line with current polling numbers Next week the LAB MP for Bassetlaw, John Mann is quiting as an MP to take up a government role fighting anti-semitism. He’ll be elevated to the House of Lords. This means that there will be a vacancy which in the normal course of things should lead to a by-election most likely in December. If the government doesn’t get its General Election motion through on Monday then when…

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Extraordinary – Hillary Clinton now FIFTH favourite in the betting for the Democratic nomination

Extraordinary – Hillary Clinton now FIFTH favourite in the betting for the Democratic nomination

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Betdata.io chart of Betfair market This is NOT a bet I would make With a hundred days to go before Iowa – the first state to decide punters continue to bet on Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination and she’s now rated as a 7% chance. I think that she would like to run but the chances are remote given the other contenders who have been gathering momentum. Sure she won the popular vote at WH2016 but Trump won several…

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Why I’m betting that Farage’s Brexit party will get fewer than 4 MPs

Why I’m betting that Farage’s Brexit party will get fewer than 4 MPs

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Even at a time when Brexit totally dominating the news we are not seeing much of Nigel Farage who appears to be keeping a low profile at the moment. He’s opposed to the deal which has not endeared him to many of the party’s followers. His big problem, of course, is Johnson who appears to be dominating the pro-Brexit end of the market. He’s the one taking the battle forward while Farage has become an isolated figure of late. Given…

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On the day Johnson wants for his general election the UK sunset is the earliest for the year

On the day Johnson wants for his general election the UK sunset is the earliest for the year

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Wikimedia commons Going dark so early will surely will have an impact We all know that the nights are very long in December when Mr. Johnson, wants to have his general election. This will be decided in the Commons on Monday. Looking through the times of sunset December 12th happens to be the earliest of the year throughout the UK this year. In London it goes dark at 1551 and it gets earlier the further you go up north. In…

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On the Betfair Exchange punters don’t think that MPs will vote for a December election on Monday

On the Betfair Exchange punters don’t think that MPs will vote for a December election on Monday

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Chart Betdata.io Judging by the reaction from LAB MPs tonight it is hard to see Johnson getting the 434 votes he needs on Monday to back his December 12th general election plan. Of course there are the usual shouts of “chicken” to the main opposition party but we have been down this road twice before. Labour is not going to give its assent to a general election until a no deal Brexit is firmly off the table. In a sense…

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