A much better way of looking at each constituency The chart above is based on projections from Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway on how each Westminster constituency in the Euro elections on May23rd – the most recent election when the whole nation voted. I like to take the aggregate of LD/GRN/CHUK/PC to get a sense of the remain vote in a seat. Likewise taking CON+BREX gives you a sense of the leave side of the equation. The LAB vote…
Perhaps the most bizarre event so far in this election campaign was Nigel Farage talking to Donald Trump on his LBC radio programme yesterday. Clearly Farage has been the big loser from the emergence of Johnson as the Conservative leader and Prime Minister and we have heard very little from the the Brexit party leader over the last month or so. How was Farage going to get back into the game and start commanding media attention again? Well we have…
There have been Vanilla problems. Apparently, if you clear your cache, then all is well. Thanks
So here we are and a third Brexit deadline is about to be missed in spite of Johnson firm assertions that we would be leaving tonight when he first became PM. This has been a very active betting market with on Betfair alone £7.2m of bets being matched. The Betdata.io chart of Betfair prices really follows what has been happening. My own view is that Johnson won’t suffer any real political damage from failing to get the UK out by…
And it’s hard to see what the party can do about it Above are the latest satisfaction ratings from Ipsos-MORI which started polling in the late 1970s. As can be seen from the chart Johnson is now in positive territory, Swinson is a net minus 12, Farage a net minus 22 with the LAB leader on minus 60. There are equal the worst numbers for an opposition leader ever. No doubt LAB optimists will be pointing to what happened at…
New YouGov Times pollCON 36% =LAB 21% -2LD 18% =BRX 13% +1GRN 6% = — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2019 Survation Mail poll "favoured stance on Brexit"Johnson 41%Swinnson 23%Corbyn 15% — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2019 From Survation/Mail poll42% of LAB supporters say they would be more likely to vote for the party if Corbyn stepped down; 18% say they would be less likely to vote LAB. — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) October 31, 2019 LAB's equivocation stance on…
Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look at the numbers as a December 12th election is announced. Who is best placed? What is the path to victory for each party and what should we look out for in the coming weeks? Listen to the podcast below: Follow this week’s guests Follow @KeiranPedley Follow @LeoBarasi Tweet
Nobody knows anything. The results of the last two general elections and the referendum result have all come as a major surprise to all the wiseacres (including me). So it is time for a little humility and to think about some of the things we don’t yet know about this election. Here are a few. 1) What are the people who voted in 2017 and who are now saying “don’t know/won’t vote” going to do? In a recent YouGov poll,…