With a December 12th election looking a near certainty punters rate Johnson’s majority chances at evens

With a December 12th election looking a near certainty punters rate Johnson’s majority chances at evens

Comments 0 Comment

Swing Bellwethers: 2010, 2015, 2017 general elections So the waiting is almost over and Johnson has got his December 12th election date. The vote on the amendment to have it three days earlier was defeated and the government had a rare Commons victory. This is not the same proposal as the one defeated yesterday. Given the polling it is easy to see why punters on Betfair are putting their money on a Tory majority but there is a long time…

Read More Read More

How each of the constituencies voted at the Referendum

How each of the constituencies voted at the Referendum

Comments 0 Comment

The projections from Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway One thing’s for sure in the coming battle is how individual seats voted in the referendum on June 23rd 2016. Above is the standard reference on this projected by the leading political scientist, Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway. Most seats are just projections but in a number there are real results coming from councils which issued data down to ward level. I have the spreadsheet set up so that they…

Read More Read More

The General Election – identifying the top bellwether seats

The General Election – identifying the top bellwether seats

Comments 0 Comment

Every single GB constituency ranked by how close they’ve been to the national swings over the past 3 general elections Thanks to AndyJS for once again creating a very interesting and useful spreadsheet. He mentioned this on the previous the previous thread and I thought it deserved to be highlighted even more. Sure the fact that the top seat is Bedford has made this stand ot for me. Interestingly at the referendum Bedford’s leave percentage was almost exactly the same…

Read More Read More

New polling finds fewer than 1 in 3 think that Brexit will happen by Jan 31st 2020

New polling finds fewer than 1 in 3 think that Brexit will happen by Jan 31st 2020

Comments 0 Comment

Are we going to see almost perpetual extensions? The latest extension of the Article 50 process is the third time this has happened and, as the latest YouGov polling shows, just 23% believe that we will be out on by the end of January next year. It is not as though an extension is unusual. By my counting this is the third time the process has been put back and, who knows, we could see the same happen again. Of…

Read More Read More

The LDs seem to be spending big in a seat where they lost their deposit at GE2015 and got just 5.9% in 2017

The LDs seem to be spending big in a seat where they lost their deposit at GE2015 and got just 5.9% in 2017

Comments 0 Comment

If this is a target seat then you cannot fault their ambition This morning the above 8 page glossy A4 leaflet was delivered to my house by the postman (ie the distribution was paid for). What’s odd is not that this should happen but that I live in the Bedford parliamentary constituency which you could hardly describe as an LD prospect. At the last election this was a LAB gain from CON with the LDs getting just 5.9% of the…

Read More Read More

Sell BREX, Buy PC, GRN & LDs – My current Commons seats spread bets

Sell BREX, Buy PC, GRN & LDs – My current Commons seats spread bets

Comments 0 Comment

With December 2019 general election looking more likely I have just placed another Commons seats spread bet with SportingIndex. With this form of betting the more you are right the more you win and the more you are wrong the more you lose. It lends itself very well to general election betting on things like how many seats will a party get. My latest bet is a BUY at 56 seats of the LDs on the LibDem 50 up market….

Read More Read More

On the betting markets a December general election is now evens favourite

On the betting markets a December general election is now evens favourite

Comments 0 Comment

The Swinson December 9th plan could succeed As can be seen from the betdata.io chart there’s an increasing belief amongst punters that there will be a December general election. Later today the Commons will vote on Johnson’s motion under the FTPA for there to be an early election which he says would be on December 12th. Although he has named a specific date there is nothing that will make it happen then if 434 MPs do give it their blessing….

Read More Read More

By two to one the voters think the Brexit referendum should not have been held

By two to one the voters think the Brexit referendum should not have been held

Comments 0 Comment

Fascinating finding from @OpiniumResearch 'Brexit referendum should never have been called, say majority of voters'https://t.co/Tgrgm69kyA — TSE (@TSEofPB) October 26, 2019 Hindsight is a wonderful thing Today’s Observer is reporting that Twice as many people now think it would have been better never to have held a referendum on Brexit than believe it was a good idea, according to the latest Opinium poll for the Observer. Asked to consider the difficulties the government has had in reaching an agreement, 57% of UK adults…

Read More Read More