The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

The Scottish play. Will Wales follow Scotland and abandon Labour at a general election?

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We saw in Scotland tribal loyalty to Labour can be upturned by a nation changing referendum, will Wales be next? The latest polling in Wales shows the Conservatives leading Labour 29% to 25% yet that 4% lead for the Conservatives still sees Labour win more seats than the Conservatives so it is understandable why Labour are the favourites in this market because first past the post and old constituency boundaries are working against the Conservatives in Wales. I think there’s…

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How sensitive are the poll figures?

How sensitive are the poll figures?

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Let’s take a step back from the day-to-day swings and look at the overall picture, focused on the likelihood of a Conservative overall majority (I’m not going to look here at changes between the opposition parties). The result at the last election was  Con 42 Lab 40 LD 7 UKIP 2 Green 2 others 7 The current polling average is  Con 37 (-5) Lab 25 (-15) LD 17 (+10) BXP 11 (+9 over UKIP) Green 4 (+2) I’m taking here…

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Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negative response to her healthcare funding plan

Warren on the slide in WH2020 nomination betting after negative response to her healthcare funding plan

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There’ve been big movements in the betting in the fight for the Democratic nomination with one-time favourite, Beto O’Rourke, now pulling himself out of the race and the current favourite Elizabeth Warren seeing a dramatic slide in her betting position. At the last TV debate she had been challenged forcefully by Mayor Pete to explain how she would fund her ambitious healthcare plan without putting up taxes for the middle classes. That led to her this week giving details which…

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Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament

Local By-Election Review : The 2017 – 2019 Parliament

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When I started this, I, like most people, believed I would be tallying the local by-elections for October 2019. Now, I find myself publishing the data for every by-election in the 2017 – 2019 Parliament! And, aside from everything happening inside Westminster, what an eventful few years it has been in local by-elections. We’ve had Labour gaining seats from the United Kingdom Independence Party, Local Independents gaining seats from Labour and Conservatives, Greens gaining seats from the Conservatives, Liberal Democrat…

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Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 may not be 2017-part-2

Labour’s fan club is far too confident: 10 reasons why 2019 may not be 2017-part-2

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A recovery for Corbyn is no foregone conclusion; it may get worse for Labour This is not a prediction as such. There are plenty of counter-arguments to the points I’m about to make, some of which will almost certainly turn out to be true. It would be equally possible to write an article with 10 reasons why the Tory lead may well slide again. All the same, to keep things simple, let’s keep the focus on this side of the…

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A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot following Farage’s campaign threat

A CON majority drops out of the GE2019 betting favourite slot following Farage’s campaign threat

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Ever since a 2019 general election became a certainty punters made a CON majority the favourite outcome touching nearly a 60% chance on the Betfair according to the betdata.io chart. That’s all changed following Farage announcement that his Brexit Party will fight a full range of seats thus possibly splitting the leave vote unless Johnson is ready to form a leave alliance. Looking at the official election timetable the last point at which Farage has got to decide is 4pm…

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How each Westminster seat voted at the May 2019 Euros

How each Westminster seat voted at the May 2019 Euros

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A much better way of looking at each constituency The chart above is based on projections from Prof Chris Hanretty of Royal Holloway on how each Westminster constituency in the Euro elections on May23rd – the most recent election when the whole nation voted. I like to take the aggregate of LD/GRN/CHUK/PC to get a sense of the remain vote in a seat. Likewise taking CON+BREX gives you a sense of the leave side of the equation. The LAB vote…

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Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be tempted

Farage plays his Trump card but Johnson surely shouldn’t be tempted

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Perhaps the most bizarre event so far in this election campaign was Nigel Farage talking to Donald Trump on his LBC radio programme yesterday. Clearly Farage has been the big loser from the emergence of Johnson as the Conservative leader and Prime Minister and we have heard very little from the the Brexit party leader over the last month or so. How was Farage going to get back into the game and start commanding media attention again? Well we have…

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