We could be just 18 days away from the next LAB leadership contest

We could be just 18 days away from the next LAB leadership contest

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The Friday afternoon’s following general elections almost always see at least one party leader stepping down. Given Corbyn has indicated that he will go if LAB register a fourth successive general election defeat then just 18 days from today a party leadership race could begin. So far as the betdata.io chart shows Rebecca Long-Bailey has now been pipped as the Betfair betting favourite by Keir Starmer but he’s rated by punters as having less than a 20% chance. Quite how…

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The polling that’s persuaded me that turnout will be greater than 66.4%

The polling that’s persuaded me that turnout will be greater than 66.4%

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My 66.4% or more turnout spread bet When it became clear that we were going to have a December general election the general view was this would inevitably lead to a lower turnout than the 68.8% of GE2017. The argument was that at this time of year the days are getting very short and and it will be harder to both campaign and to persuade voters to turn out on. My view is that what drives turnout is how important…

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Another man in his late ’70s puts his hat into the ring for WH2020

Another man in his late ’70s puts his hat into the ring for WH2020

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New York Times This had been expected but during the day the multi-billionaire former Republican, Michael Bloomberg has announced that he is running for the White House and he’s formally entered the race. He said: ““Defeating Donald Trump — and rebuilding America — is the most urgent and important fight of our lives. And I’m going all in,” Mr. Bloomberg said. “I offer myself as a doer and a problem solver — not a talker. And someone who is ready…

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If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

If this polling turns out to be accurate then it is great news for the SNP and Boris Johnson

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A poll graphic with a range of exciting facial expressions on our party leaders? Ok, seeing as it’s you pic.twitter.com/ASI9ckwxXn — Jason Allardyce (@Jason_Allardyce) November 24, 2019 I have to admit I wasn’t expecting to see this, after all it was heavily trailed earlier on this year, that the Johnson/Cummings strategy to sacrifice Scottish and Remain inclined seats to win a plethora of Labour held Leave inclined seats. As the country’s greatest ever psephologist, Professor Sir John Curtice, writes Just…

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The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

The first sign that Boris Johnson is going to repeat Theresa May’s dire campaign performance at GE2017?

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If these @DeltapollUK ratings are replicated with @IpsosMORI then Boris Johnson is about to repeat Theresa May's cratering of her ratings at GE2017. pic.twitter.com/fJQxWO6Hkx — TSE (@TSEofPB) November 23, 2019 Corbyn reducing the PM’s net approval ratings lead by 23 points in a week is a worrying sign for Boris Johnson. Longstanding readers of PB will know that leadership ratings are a much better predictor of electoral outcomes than headline voting intention figures, they foretold the unexpected Conservative majorities of…

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Ready for President Chuck Grassley?

Ready for President Chuck Grassley?

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How an 86-year old could be the next US president This has not been a good week for Donald Trump. Rant all he might at the impeachment hearings, they’re turning up deeply damaging testimony that would in any normal circumstance be career-ending. Trump is not, as he’s proven many times, politically normal but even he must have a limit as to how far he can push things. That he will now be impeached is all-but inevitable. Having gone this far…

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Let’s talk landslides

Let’s talk landslides

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Boris might well be on for a 100+ majority Even the balloons looked forlorn and listless; remnants of a celebration party no-one really expected to need and now mockingly reminding the few left of those misplaced hopes, as they swayed aimlessly in unseen aerial eddies. The signs had been there for weeks of course – months, even – but for one reason or another, they’d continuously been ignored. The local government by-elections, the Westminster by-elections, the leader ratings, the constituency…

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Tonight has done nothing to move the GE2019 betting

Tonight has done nothing to move the GE2019 betting

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This was all about reassuring your own party’s supporters I would guess that the vast majority of those who watched the QuestionTime Special had made up their minds about the election before the evening started. But it was an important programme and will almost certainly be the toughest questioning that any of the four will face before December 12th. My view is that this format is better than a debate and for those complaining about a biased audience then who…

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