A general election could unlock a restoration at Stormont

A general election could unlock a restoration at Stormont

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Brexit isn’t the only issue stoking the tensions in Ulster Northern Ireland rarely gets much coverage from the mainland British press. Riots generate a fraction of the coverage that a similar one in England or Scotland (never mind London) would get; the recent Harland and Wolff closure was only of interest because of a ship that sank 107 years ago; its sporting competitions are, like its politics, a different world. Here be dragons. For once, however, Northern Ireland can’t be…

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This is not a government with any real support for its approach and main policy

This is not a government with any real support for its approach and main policy

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The unelected PM without a mandate has a big credibility problem https://t.co/TMrSpjOb3v — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 30, 2019 New: More say government wrong to prorogue parliament – but Leavers are happy #Brexit pic.twitter.com/lcItRpbeby — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 30, 2019 New What is closing parliament for? Most don't believe No 10 pic.twitter.com/MJwwtybAQR — Ben Page (@benatipsos) August 30, 2019 The government stopping Parliament from meeting between mid-September and mid-October is… Acceptable: 31%Not acceptable: 53% via @YouGov https://t.co/aLFu514leG pic.twitter.com/9SZWXq40Al —…

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BJohnson – the politician who keeps getting overstated in the polls

BJohnson – the politician who keeps getting overstated in the polls

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Do voters have second thoughts when faced with him on the ballot paper? Back in 2001 the fledgling YouGov polling company first came to our attention with its survey of CON members ahead of the leadership ballot. There was never any doubt that IDS would beat the pro EU Ken Clarke but this new polling company uniquely then using the internet scored a spectacular success by getting the result within one percent. Four years later it was DDavis versus Cameron…

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Then what?

Then what?

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The tweet from @TeamSaj quoting what he said in the C4 debate has been deleted. But here is what he said. You can’t delete that. https://t.co/1L5iQgtjAv — Krishnan Guru-Murthy (@krishgm) August 29, 2019 When I was younger, I casually enjoyed those Choose-Your-Own-Adventure books. For those of you that were not nerdy male teenagers in the 1980s, these were books with non-linear structures where you were presented with a series of choices with page numbers.  You made your choice and you…

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The current most active UK betting market is on whether Article 50 will be revoked

The current most active UK betting market is on whether Article 50 will be revoked

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Yesterday’s announcement by the Prime Minister that there will be a Queen’s speech in mid October meaning that the number of parliamentary days available for debating Brexit has been drastically reduced has led to to a lot of betting. The current busiest market in terms of money traded is the Betfair one above on whether article 50 will be revoked. Currently that’s rated as a 25% chance but things are developing all the time and this could move up or…

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The Tangled Web that has evolved

The Tangled Web that has evolved

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We should not have been surprised. Johnson has never had much desire to be held accountable. Not as London Mayor. Nor as Foreign Secretary. Even when he misspoke (to put it at its most charitable) over Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, his response was petulant and grudging. He went out of his way to avoid scrutiny at the start of his campaign to become Tory leader. This is not a politician who enjoys debate and argument, willing to test his ideas, face challenge….

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The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the people” is that those thinking Brexit was wrong have a 6% lead

The flaw in going into an election about “the will of the people” is that those thinking Brexit was wrong have a 6% lead

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This rather narrows the target audience This polling Tracker from YouGov has been asked at least twice a month since the 2016 referendum and the big trend is that there has been a shift from those thinking Brexit was right to those thinking that brexit was wrong. This matters, I would suggest, if there is to be an election which is presented as being about the People vs the Politicians as is being suggested by many commentators this morning. For…

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