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Survation has CON lead at 4 with just 19% wanting a no deal Brexit

14/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 394 Comments

NEW: Preferred Brexit outcome, updated: Remain in the EU 43% (+2)Leave the EU with a deal 29% (+2)Leave the EU without a deal19% (-6)Don’t know 9% (+2) changes w/ May 2019https://t.co/D6kusLfatx pic.twitter.com/leLDrFPK4I — Survation. (@Survation) August 14, 2019 Not the platform surely for a no deal-based General Election? With the October 31st deadline getting nearer and nearer all polls are being looked at closely to evaluate the gamble that Johnson would be taking if there was an Autumn UK general…

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Punters give the Tories a 67% chance of winning most seats but just a 32% one of securing a majority

14/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 766 Comments

Six months chart of Betfair movements from Betdata.io We could be within 2 months of seeing a general election being declared and so far at least we haven’t looked at how punters are seeing the outcome. The chances in the betting on the Betfair change, where punters not bookies fix the odds, shows the movement on the Betfair Exchange over the past 6 months As can be seen there was a stage not so long ago when LAB was the…

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LDs just ahead of the Tories in 20 top CON-LD marginals YouGov poll

13/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 637 Comments

Just released on the YouGov website today is the above poll commissioned by the People’s Vote in the 20 most marginal Tory seats where the Lib Dems are the main challenger. As can be seen the Lib Dems just have the edge of just one percent ahead The interesting figure is the 11% LAB share and my guess is that that would be squeezed very tightly in a general election in places where the Lib Dems would be the main challengers…

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At least ComRes didn’t bring Nelson Mandela into its controversial poll

13/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 332 Comments

When mentioning his name might get better results? All the discussion over alleged leading questions in the ComRes poll have provided a peg fo me to highlight one of my favourite polls ever. In the build-up in 2005 to the resolution London’s bid for the 2012 Olympics a poll was commissioned to try to show that people in the capital backed the idea. This was the series of questions in the order that they were put:- “Are you aware that…

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ComRes and the Telegraph come under fierce fire from other pollsters over the latest poll

13/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 301 Comments

I can't recall a national opinion poll for a leading newspaper being so criticized as tonight's one from ComRes for the Daily Telegraph. To think that just 4 years ago after the 2015 general election ComRes was regarded as the top pollster — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2019 Important – @Telegraph reporting taking the piss by ignoring “don’t knows” to present an apparent majority – one for @FullFact @RoyalStatSoc @TweetMRS https://t.co/Qyz0hopxZL — Ben Page, Ipsos MORI (@benatipsosmori) August 13,…

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The betting markets think a no deal Brexit is getting likelier and likelier

12/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 501 Comments

Chart of Betfair prices from Betdata.io Cummings certainly has the bottle but has his boss? Mike Smithson Follow @MSmithsonPB Tweet

Johnson appears to be doing what Gordon Brown did in the summer of 2007 giving you all the signs of going for an early election

12/8/2019 Mike Smithson Comments 538 Comments

On Betfair it’s now a 72% chance that there will be a general election this year. pic.twitter.com/kJPhshLAzu — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) August 12, 2019 Why I’m betting that there’s greater than a 28% chance of no 2019 election This period reminds me very much of summer 2007 when Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair in the June of that year. There was a mass of activity, and a new initiative just about every day. All the speculation was that…

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When we are over the line, Brexit happens, then what?

12/8/2019 CycleFree Comments 346 Comments

Cartoon from Marf Dramatic changes which might or might not have been planned for One of the (perhaps inevitable) side-effects of the focus on the day when Brexit is going to, finally, happen is a sense that this is a project that just needs getting over the line for it to be largely concluded. The government will have done what the voters ordered. Boris will have delivered. Hooray! We can all move on, cast our eyes westward and concentrate on…

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