Starmer starting to pull away in the Corbyn successor betting

Starmer starting to pull away in the Corbyn successor betting

Comments 0 Comment

Betdata.io chart of Betfair exchange Given the proximity of the general election there’s increasing interest in the next LAB leader betting where Sir Keir Starmer favourite status is hardening up as seen in the chart. If LAB does lose, as the polls currently indicate, on December 12th and a LAB leadership contest starts soon afterwards then he looks as though he’s in a good starting position. Assuming LAB gets defeated then this will be its fourth successive general election setback…

Read More Read More

A suggested new cross-break for GE2019 pollsters – separate numbers for Remainia and Leaverstan

A suggested new cross-break for GE2019 pollsters – separate numbers for Remainia and Leaverstan

Comments 0 Comment

One of the distinctive features of polling for this general election has been the number of single constituency polls and we seem to be getting a new batch every Saturday night. In the main these have been showing something of a different  picture from the main national polls. I think that just about all of them have been in Remain seats which might explain why some of the seat findings are far less friendly to the Tories. These are mainly…

Read More Read More

Labour’s Brexit Divisions

Labour’s Brexit Divisions

Comments 0 Comment

Political parties have always been coalitions in themselves. They are big tents and broad churches that try to keep everyone singing from more or less the same hymn sheet, or at least not fighting in the aisles. But sometimes you can see the stretch and the strain in the canvas as it tries to hold it all together. As James Maxton quipped during Labour party splits in the 1930s, “if you can’t ride two horses at once then you’ve no…

Read More Read More

Sheffield Hallam, a Labour hold?

Sheffield Hallam, a Labour hold?

Comments 0 Comment

Picture: The gateway to paradise Sheffield Hallam seems like a nailed on gain for the Liberal Democrats on the 12th of December, they have an energetic candidate in Laura Gordon, and have been working hard in the constituency they held between 1997 and 2017 but will it be a gain? It seems like a bold call to say Labour might hold this wonderful constituency considering the Lib Dems are nationally polling double what they polled in 2017 with Labour polling…

Read More Read More

Your regular reminder that hypothetical polls can be as accurate as an American war film

Your regular reminder that hypothetical polls can be as accurate as an American war film

Comments 0 Comment

Westminster voting intention… if "the deadline for the UK to leave the EU has been extended beyond the 31st of October 2019": LAB: 27%CON: 26%BREX: 20%LDEM: 18%GRN: 4% via @ComRes, 16 – 17 Oct — Britain Elects (@BritainElects) October 24, 2019 Our latest #GE2019 Westminster voting intention on behalf of the Sunday @Telegraph CON 43% (+2)LAB 33% (-1)LD 13% (-)BRX 4% (-1)Other 7% (-) 27th – 28th Nov (changes from Savanta ComRes/Telegraph, Nov 27th)https://t.co/92GhonpwXq pic.twitter.com/JGn3lJLO7k — Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) November…

Read More Read More

History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

History of the Political Punter: Always Expect the Unexpected

Comments 0 Comment

The modern era of big, open, political betting began in 1963 when Ron Pollard of Ladbrokes offered odds on the Conservative leadership contest for the ordinary punter. It was a dismal start as the 5/4 favourite Rab Butler was beaten by the 16/1 shot Alec Douglas-Home. In offering the market Pollard tapped into a long, often secret, history of political betting in Britain. In the 1920s, people on the stock exchange would bet on ‘majorities’ – what we now call…

Read More Read More