My Ladbrokes betting slip Back at the end of November longstanding PBer, Philip Thompson, wrote a header here suggesting that the 200/1 then available on Rishi Sunak for next CON leader was a great value bet. I was one of a number on the site who had a little flutter taking the 250/1 on Sunak after Ladbrokes boosted the odds. Clearly this is going to be a long term bet but I’m encouraged that the latest odds are now 25/1…
Why didn’t bellwether Bedford swing? Even though it was a fortnight ago I’ve still not found an answer to what appeared to be an inexplicable outcome in my seat of Bedford. This is a constituency that at GE2010, GE2015, GE2017 and the referendum voted most of all 650 seats in line with the country as a whole. Longstanding PB regular, Andy JS, highlighted the seat’s status before GE2019 and certainly on hearing the exit poll many, including me, assumed that…
Wikipedia I don’t want to move on from the general election before just looking back at the performance of the pollsters. This election was important to them following the disappointing final surveys that we saw in 2015 and 2017 when with one or two notable exceptions the polls were some way off. Note that national polling for Westminster elections generally takes place on a GB basis with Northern Ireland being excluded. So the comparisons should be made with what happened…
ACROSS 1 Retired politician’s live argument over Conservative leader (6) 5 Thatcher’s material restraining Independent once having opposed his own party (8) 9 Soldiers left in charge by local government for instance (8) 10 Diplomat got it and succeeded (6) 11 Returning officer had to cancel (6) 12 Tory Home Secretary backed Gladstone – good! (4-4) 14 American activist bit monarch and so called Prime Minister (4,8) 17 Tory can just about cope at first – right? (6,6) 20 Swinson…
A guest slot from Egg The fuel to ignite the bitterness of the imminent Labour war is fact you cannot have remainers in the Labour Party now. How can you if the word has no meaning anymore, remainery has ceased to be, if the party ever wins again they will inherit a nation (or whats left of it) outside the EU. So it needs a compromise, does it not? Whether voting for one or betting on the outcome,…
New Speaker Lindsay Hoyle is surely right when he says says Johnson should not deny Bercow a peerage. It would be seen as mean and vindictive. #.https://t.co/iFaPJQ9uJo — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 24, 2019 Real Conservatives don’t ignore precedents going back centuries Very interesting that new Speaker, Lindsay Hoyle has felt the need to speak out over whether his predecessor should be give a peerage – as has been the case with Speakers over the centuries. If this, indeed, is…
When Boris Johnson’s autobiography eventually (inevitably) comes out it will be one of the most fascinating political books of its time. Some of it might even be true. It will probably write about the 2019 election as being as much the Boris election as the Brexit election, a perspective that wouldn’t be entirely driven by pure egomania. Governing parties usually just sink over time. Rebounding upwards after almost a decade in office is rare. But was it born of skill,…
Prospect CON & Leave areas more likely to be lower down The above table has been prepared by academics Phil Cowley and Matthew Bailey and appears under the grand title “How football grounds explain the election result” in Prospect Magazine. As they observe: “ Premier League clubs are mostly in big cities, and big cities largely return Labour MPs and voted Remain. As you move down the leagues, you get smaller cities and towns, which are more likely to be…