Cast your mind back to the Monday after the general election when it became clear that Corbyn would be standing aside and that a leadership contest would be held. On that afternoon all the money started to go on RLB as successor and she reached a 51% chance on Betfair. At the same time Starmer was struggling to be taken seriously and was in third place in the betting behind Nandy on just 10%. It struck me seeing what has…
But time is running out to get the MP nominations In a development that is widely seen as representing the doubts that hangover Long Bailey as a leadership contender the shadow development secretary Barry Gardiner, is reported to be mulling over entering the race himself. He’s actually at a conference in Abu Dhabi at the moment and any move would be liable to failure because there is so little time left to secure the 22 MP nominations to get into…
It’s hard to see now how he can fail to get on the final ballot The big LAB leadership news this afternoon has been that the country’s biggest played union , Unison , has announced that it will back Starmer. The Union which has 1.3 million members decided on the move saying that it believed he was the one best placed to unite the movement and regain public trust in Labour. This follows him reaching a key milestone in the…
The one best placed for LAB to reconnect with its lost voters? In the next few days we’re going to spend a lot of time checking the spreadsheet showing the MP support for different contenders in the Labour leader nomination race. The first stage, on getting support of fellow party MPs, closes next Monday and to go forward to the next round contenders have to have 22 fellow MP backers. The big surprise after the first couple of days has…
We are now less than four weeks off the Iowa caucuses – the first election in the prolonged process of choosing the Democratic nominee. Even though the polls have Buttigieg, Biden and Bernie level-pegging that’s not how punters see it. The 78yo socialist from Vermont who is not even a Democrat is attracting the bets as having the best chance. The caucuses are a very unusual form of election. At meetings across 1600+ locations in the state voters gather to…
That overstates his chances Last time there was an LD leadership contest it got overshadowed by the Tory contest that saw Johnson take the crown. This time it is LAB’s leadership battle which is dominating the coverage which is understandable. The vacancy, as we all know, has been created because Jo Swinson lost her seat at the general election and now the party is going through the process of electing a replacement. So far the possible contenders would appear to…
Over the next seven weeks this spreadsheet from Guido and others like it are going to be a key part for those following and betting on the LAB leadership contest. For we are nearly two months away from ballots going out – this is stage one of gathering the nominations simply in order to be able to proceed to the next stage. The leadership hopefuls have got to persuade 22 of their MP colleagues to back their bid by next…