The money goes on 78 year old Bernie to win Iowa

The money goes on 78 year old Bernie to win Iowa chart of Betfair Iowa market

We are now less than four weeks off the Iowa caucuses – the first election in the prolonged process of choosing the Democratic nominee. Even though the polls have Buttigieg, Biden and Bernie level-pegging that’s not how punters see it. The 78yo socialist from Vermont who is not even a Democrat is attracting the bets as having the best chance.

The caucuses are a very unusual form of election. At meetings across 1600+ locations in the state voters gather to discuss and then to decide on their choice. It was Trump’s good performance in the 2016 Republican caucuses that signalled that he stood a good chance.

Getting people out on a cold February evening to attend a meeting can be highly challenging for the contenders’ campaigns. Polling is also an issue because it is identifying actual caucus goers that is central.

Iowa has a reputation of throwing up late surprises as we saw in 2012 with Rick Santorum who came out of nowhere to win the Republican battle.

Mike Smithson

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