Warren looks a promising bet in Massachusetts following the Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdrawals

Warren looks a promising bet in Massachusetts following the Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdrawals

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At 5/2 she’s value A big problem with just about all the Super Tuesday polls is that they were carried out before Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar announced that they were pulling out so it is hard to assess where their support will go. As the polling of Massachusetts above shows Elizabeth Warren had been running Bernie Sanders fairly close in what is her home state and where she has one of the two senate seats. A big question is…

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With both Bernie and Biden close to their 80s their VP choices could be crucial

With both Bernie and Biden close to their 80s their VP choices could be crucial

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We all know that the joint front runners now in the race for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are both older than anybody who has ever run for the White House before and there must be a high actuarial chance, at least, if it is one of these who is the nominee won’t make it until the election on the first Tuesday in November. The corona virus is also making us aware of the vulnerability of the…

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Buttigieg quitting the WH2020 race triggers Biden bounce in the Dem nomination betting

Buttigieg quitting the WH2020 race triggers Biden bounce in the Dem nomination betting

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The three late septuagenarians lead the race The big development in the race for the White House overnight has been the decision by Pete Buttigieg to quit the race following his poor performance in South Carolina. This comes just 36 hours after it was confirmed that he did in fact win the Iowa caucuses which of course was the first State to decide. I just wonder if the outcome in Iowa had been clear-cut and and Pete seen as the…

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Priti Vacant? Who will be next out of the cabinet

Priti Vacant? Who will be next out of the cabinet

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This market from Ladbrokes is an interesting one. Priti Patel who previously was a ‘winner’ in this market when in 2017 she had to resign in disgrace when she deludedly thought she was Foreign Secretary is the favourite in this market, at 1/1 evens I’m not remotely interested at those odds. For me the interesting one is the DEFRA Secretary George Eustice at 12/1 who has had a sub-optimal few days as the following thread by Jim Pickard shows, and…

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Free speech, one each. The myth of the oppressed rightwinger and what it tells us about politics today

Free speech, one each. The myth of the oppressed rightwinger and what it tells us about politics today

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Life has hardly been tough for Toby Young. Admitted to Oxford University with BBC at A level after his father (the leading academic, Baron Young) phoned up on his behalf, he has glided through lofty positions without visible means of propulsion like a flying squirrel, mainly using the high elevation from which he started off to maintain his position.   In 2018, he suffered a rare setback. Despite having no obvious qualification for the role, he had been groomed to be a…

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As expected Biden storming to big victory in South Carolina

As expected Biden storming to big victory in South Carolina

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Even though barely 6% of precincts have reported as I write, the networks have all declared Joe Biden the winner in the South Carolina Primary. At the moment he’s heading for more than 50% of the entire vote and it is hard to see anything other than him sweeping the state. There will be few states in the current nomination race where the outcome will be so clear cut in favour of one candidate and this exceeds anything that the…

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