politicalbetting.com – Page 602 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

The Starmer juggernaut storms on and he’s now a 78% chance on Betfair

5/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

So far, 264 CLPs have nominated candidates to be leader of the Labour Party. Keir Starmer: 154 Rebecca Long-Bailey: 70 Lisa Nandy: 28 Emily Thornberry: 12 pic.twitter.com/DPfceU7RXd — CLP Nominations (@CLPNominations) February 4, 2020 Unless LAB members vote in a very different way in the postal ballot compared with what is happening at the constituency party level or else Keir Starmer makes some massive cock-up between now and April 2nd then he is an absolute certainty to succeed Corbyn. One…

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First results from Iowa have Buttgieg in the lead

4/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This appears to be based on the proportion of delegates that were elected. These are provisional and there are others results still to come. The totals are bad on 62% with 38% still to come. The surprise is how poorly Biden has done given he was leading in getting on for half of the final week polls. Mike Smithson

We may not have the Iowa results yet but punters think Biden was the big loser

4/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

From a 38% chance to 19% in just two weeks Hopefully we should get the Iowa results at some stage during the day. One thing that punters seem to agree on is that ex-VP and former favourite for the nomination, Jo Biden, had a poor night. Even though some pre-caucus Iowa polls had him as favourite he’s not being given an earthly at the moment. This inevitably has led to him being marked down in the overall nomination betting. Judging…

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The first state to decide voted but because of a technical cock-up we don’t know who won

4/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Pete Buttigieg is second in the betting For those expecting to wake up to discover who has won the Iowa caucuses then I’m sorry. I stayed up all night and went to bed at 5 a.m. without knowing what had happened. There seems to have been a mess up with communications between the organisers of the 1600+ precinct caucus meetings and the state party HQ. An app that that was supposed to provide fast and accurate results simply failed. So…

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With three hours to go before the Iowa caucuses Betfair punters make Bernie a 62% chance

3/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The first voting in WH2020 starts tonight The latest weather for Des Moines has it down going down to minus 6 tonight which could be a big disincentive to those Democratic supporters who were considering taking part in the caucuses. In past elections something like 16% of Iowans have participated which makes this a massive test for the pollsters. Will those who said they’d participate in these events which can lat two hours actually do so. The biggest mover in…

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If you are betting on the Iowa caucuses be warned – Betfair could be paying out on a different winner than Ladbrokes

3/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The four different ways of determining the results We all know that tonight’s Iowa caucuses are a unique form of election and are highly complicated. That perception could be even more the case tonight when it comes to working out the winner. There are FOUR different “results” that we are likely to hear and each could have a different contender in top place. THE FIRST is the initial count at each caucus centre on which contender those attending and satisfying…

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Peter’s Modest Proposal

3/2/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

I dug out the modest proposal title partially because I wanted to declare this article as being officially semi-satirical, but mostly because it’s advocating a form of cannibalism. Politics is a vicious business at the best of times but there’s always room for a little more ruthlessness. So, this is a thought-experiment in some organised political brutality. The Peter Principle, as originally laid out by Dr Laurence J. Peter and Raymond Hull, is the idea that people are always promoted…

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A tale of twelve cities. The perplexing underperformance of Britain’s second tier

2/2/2020 TSE Comments 0 Comment

The red deer’s mating habits are an exemplar of Darwinian selection. Every autumn virile stags, their veins coursing with testosterone, compete to claim the right to the herd’s females. The battles can be fearsome, sometimes even deadly. The victor, the alpha male, then claims the right to father the next generation, thus perpetuating his genes. However, there is only one stag with only one pair of eyes, and many hinds. As Benny Hill so wisely observed, a woman’s needs are…

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