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If you stayed up for the Iowa poll it isn’t going to be released

2/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The poll isn't going to get released. Des Moines Register CNN cancels release of Iowa Poll over respondent concerns https://t.co/FdCUVys5Hm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2020 This is from the statement from the paper. The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. have made the decision to not release the final installment of the CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll as planned this evening. Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the…

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Reflections from Cyclefree: Here We Go (Again)

1/2/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

There were not many dogs, hardy or otherwise, out this morning on the North West coast, understandably so in view of the overcast weather. Still, on a clear day from the top of Black Combe , a couple of miles away, it is possible to see Northern Ireland, Scotland and the Isle of Man. Beyond lies Ireland and the great big wide world beyond. All those opportunities! Just behind the spot where this photo was taken is Silecroft station, one…

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Sanders’ odds are far too short for Iowa: no-one should be odds-on

1/2/2020 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Four or five in the frame and a chaotic process makes it far too hard to call The Iowa caucus is one of those things that no-one in their right mind would invent if it didn’t already exist. As a democratic process, it flouts goodness knows how many rules of good practice, from high barriers to participation to non-secret voting to a lack of consistent process. However, it’s possible to get too precious about process. The caucus does exist and…

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The big political betting developments this weekend will not about Brexit – but Iowa

31/1/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

We are almost there. Just 3 days to go before Iowa – the first State to decide on its Democratic party nomination holds its unique selection processes. What makes this important is that the outcome has, historically, had an impact on the other states that follow. Getting a good outcome here can produce a huge lift off in the rest of the race and the main contenders know it. Although only perhaps 16% of Iowans will actually participate on Monday…

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The front pages on this historic day

31/1/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

As can be seen the Daily Mirror is the only one which does not have reference to Brexit on its front page. Of course it might be that this is the best call from a news point of view given the potential threat that the flu represents. None of the Brexit related front pages is really very surprising and I doubt if many of them will be referred to much again as we enter into the new relationship with the…

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The seemingly endless LAB leadership race trudges on and there’s been nothing to shift Starmer

30/1/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This contest is going on far too long We are now 2 months and one week away from the special labour conference when the new leader will be announced. This will follow, of course, the membership ballot which won’t go out for weeks and won’t be counted until early April. This evening a total of 40 different constituency LAB parties have been meeting and results have been coming in. They haven’t been aggregated yet and we don’t have a total…

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Irish General Election 2020 : Predictions & Review, Part 2

30/1/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

With the Irish general election taking place a week on Saturday the pressure is mounting on Leo Varadkar & the Fine Gael members. Michael Martin looks more certain to become the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) but it’s not over yet. Can Sinn Fein pull off the almighty, unbelievable upset, find out below!My predictions will be submitted in alphabetical order. Galway East (Three Seats) Galway East looks set to be a very interesting constituency and nobody is safe here, The current TD’s…

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The SNP’s Brexit conundrum

29/1/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Drink, says the Porter in the ‘Scottish Play’, is an equivocator with lechery: “it provokes the desire, but it takes away the performance…. it sets him on, and it takes him off; it persuades him, and disheartens him”. So it may prove with Brexit and Scottish Independence. Nicola Sturgeon loses no opportunity to remind Scots that Brexit is taking them out of the EU ‘against their will’, citing this as justification for holding another independence referendum so soon after the…

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