We may not have the Iowa results yet but punters think Biden was the big loser

We may not have the Iowa results yet but punters think Biden was the big loser

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From a 38% chance to 19% in just two weeks Hopefully we should get the Iowa results at some stage during the day. One thing that punters seem to agree on is that ex-VP and former favourite for the nomination, Jo Biden, had a poor night. Even though some pre-caucus Iowa polls had him as favourite he’s not being given an earthly at the moment. This inevitably has led to him being marked down in the overall nomination betting. Judging…

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The first state to decide voted but because of a technical cock-up we don’t know who won

The first state to decide voted but because of a technical cock-up we don’t know who won

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Pete Buttigieg is second in the betting For those expecting to wake up to discover who has won the Iowa caucuses then I’m sorry. I stayed up all night and went to bed at 5 a.m. without knowing what had happened. There seems to have been a mess up with communications between the organisers of the 1600+ precinct caucus meetings and the state party HQ. An app that that was supposed to provide fast and accurate results simply failed. So…

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With three hours to go before the Iowa caucuses Betfair punters make Bernie a 62% chance

With three hours to go before the Iowa caucuses Betfair punters make Bernie a 62% chance

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The first voting in WH2020 starts tonight The latest weather for Des Moines has it down going down to minus 6 tonight which could be a big disincentive to those Democratic supporters who were considering taking part in the caucuses. In past elections something like 16% of Iowans have participated which makes this a massive test for the pollsters. Will those who said they’d participate in these events which can lat two hours actually do so. The biggest mover in…

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If you are betting on the Iowa caucuses be warned – Betfair could be paying out on a different winner than Ladbrokes

If you are betting on the Iowa caucuses be warned – Betfair could be paying out on a different winner than Ladbrokes

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The four different ways of determining the results We all know that tonight’s Iowa caucuses are a unique form of election and are highly complicated. That perception could be even more the case tonight when it comes to working out the winner. There are FOUR different “results” that we are likely to hear and each could have a different contender in top place. THE FIRST is the initial count at each caucus centre on which contender those attending and satisfying…

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Peter’s Modest Proposal

Peter’s Modest Proposal

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I dug out the modest proposal title partially because I wanted to declare this article as being officially semi-satirical, but mostly because it’s advocating a form of cannibalism. Politics is a vicious business at the best of times but there’s always room for a little more ruthlessness. So, this is a thought-experiment in some organised political brutality. The Peter Principle, as originally laid out by Dr Laurence J. Peter and Raymond Hull, is the idea that people are always promoted…

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A tale of twelve cities. The perplexing underperformance of Britain’s second tier

A tale of twelve cities. The perplexing underperformance of Britain’s second tier

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The red deer’s mating habits are an exemplar of Darwinian selection.  Every autumn virile stags, their veins coursing with testosterone, compete to claim the right to the herd’s females.  The battles can be fearsome, sometimes even deadly. The victor, the alpha male, then claims the right to father the next generation, thus perpetuating his genes. However, there is only one stag with only one pair of eyes, and many hinds.  As Benny Hill so wisely observed, a woman’s needs are…

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Bernie soars on Betfair after the poll non-release fiasco

Bernie soars on Betfair after the poll non-release fiasco

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Those UK based American political obsessives like me who stayed up till 2 in the morning for the release of the the Des Moines Register Iowa poll went to bed disappointed. There was no poll as the previous post sets out. What happened here we do not know but the fact that the newspaper decided to pull it at the last minute suggests that they and the pollster were aware that what was being complained about might have some foundation….

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If you stayed up for the Iowa poll it isn’t going to be released

If you stayed up for the Iowa poll it isn’t going to be released

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The poll isn't going to get released. Des Moines Register CNN cancels release of Iowa Poll over respondent concerns https://t.co/FdCUVys5Hm — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2020 This is from the statement from the paper. The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. have made the decision to not release the final installment of the CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll as planned this evening. Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the…

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