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My 760/1 shot for WH2020 raises $12m in 5 days after her strong New Hampshire Showing

18/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Apart from Biden’s terrible performance and Elizabeth Warren only getting 9.7% of the vote the big surprise of last week’s New Hampshire primary was Amy Klobuchar’s strong third place which was well ahead of what the polls were showing. Her 19.8% vote share was well ahead of the 11.7% that she had in the RCP polling average of final polls for the state. That is some difference. I’ve long been watching Klobuchar’s progress closely after putting £8 on her at…

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Sabisky decides to go of his own accord

17/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Hey all,The media hysteria about my old stuff online is mad but I wanted to help HMG not be a distraction. Accordingly I’ve decided to resign as a contractor. I hope no.10 hires more ppl w/ good geopolitical forecasting track records & that media learn to stop selective quoting — Andrew Sabisky (@AndrewSabisky) February 17, 2020 This saves Boris/Dom an ongoing embarrassment

The helter-skelter world of WH2020 Democratic nomination betting

17/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

By far the biggest and most active currently political betting market is on who the Democrats will choose as their candidate for the November presidential election. We are currently at a critical stage after having the first two primaries and looking forward to Super Tuesday on March 3rd when more than a dozen states including the two largest, Texas and California, will be making their decisions. By historical standards the size of the field at this stage is very long…

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New poll has Starmer dwarfing Nandy and RLB as the one most likely to win a general election

17/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

After four successive general election defeats the one thing that the Labour movement wants more than anything else is a leader who can lead the party into a general election victory and back to power. Note this was from Opinium’s regular voting poll and is not of the party’s selectorate. So this polling from Opinium hits the nail on the head – Labour wants a winner and Starmer is seen as the one most likely to achieve that. What we…

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Johnson coming under pressure to sack the Number 10 advisor who backs forced sterilisation

16/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

WATCH: Transport secretary Grant Shapps refuses to condemn Andrew Sabisky, a new adviser at No 10 who called for forced sterilisation of young women. #Ridge pic.twitter.com/xaBbXKEfq2 — The Red Roar (@TheRedRoar) February 16, 2020 NEW: Have spoken to multiple special advisers who say they and their cabinet ministers will refuse to work with Andrew Sabisky — they won’t attend meetings where he is present or respond to his emails— they will tell Boris Johnson to overrule Dominic Cummings and sack…

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Who’ll be the Judge? Legitimately elected governments are not excused the obligation to comply with the law

16/2/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

On 11 February, following a court ruling, some Jamaican nationals convicted of serious crimes were not put on their scheduled deportation flight because they had not received legal advice about their deportation. This ruling does not mean that this group will be entitled to stay in the UK. Nor does it mean that the government will not be able to proceed with the deportations. What it does mean is that there will be a pause to allow them to obtain…

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Bernie back as favourite for the Dem nomination

15/2/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Washington Post article could be hurting Bloomberg The White House contender who was born three months before Pearl Harbour, Bernie Sanders, is back as the betting favourite for the nomination following a brief period when multi-billionaire, Mike Bloomberg, edged him out. The other big feature has been the collapse in the betting of ex-VP and failure in Iowa and New Hampshire, Jo Biden. This is despite the fact that in several current national polls the ex-VP is still up there….

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Number 10’s power-grab is sowing the seeds of its own failure

15/2/2020 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

Cummings cannot re-engineer government while ignoring the human aspect Political power is notoriously nebulous. Like fairies, or the value of fiat money, if enough people belief in it, that in itself is enough to call it into being – just as the lack of belief is enough to destroy it. What then gives Boris Johnson the ability to accrete to himself and his advisors in Number Ten powers that no other prime minister has enjoyed? It’s not the size of…

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