For Iowa caucus punters the wait continues

For Iowa caucus punters the wait continues

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Tomorrow sees Nevada the second state in the WH2020 process to hold a caucus to choose a nominee to fight Mr. Trump. The big difference between caucuses and a normal primary is that with the former the party machine, not the state government handles the elections which can be more complex than simple statewide ballots. Democratic Party officials in Nevada are determined that there should be no repetition of the Iowa mess-up where we still don’t know for sure whether…

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Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

Memo to Sir Keir Starmer: Unless LAB can start winning MPs in Scotland again the chances of you becoming PM are slim

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Your first big electoral test looks set to be the Scottish Assembly elections next year in a part of the UK where for decades your party was totally dominant. Recovering some of the ground lost there to the SNP might be an indicator that a general election victory could be in reach. The charts above from the Commons Library analysis of the last general election set out in stark terms how Scotland’s Westminster MP party distribution changed dramatically less than…

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Expect Warren to get the biggest boost from last night – and that could be at the expense of Sanders

Expect Warren to get the biggest boost from last night – and that could be at the expense of Sanders

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And Buttigieg could gain from Bloomberg tailing off One of the reasons why Sanders has soared in the polling in recent weeks has been that his main opponent on the progressive wing, Elizabeth Warren, has been falling like a lead balloon. This followed her less than convincing performances in Iowa and New Hampshire. But there’s little doubt that she is being seen as the winner of the Las Vegas debate with her highly effective attacks on Bloomberg which set the…

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Bloomberg slumps sharply in the nomination betting after coming under fierce attacks in the Las Vegas debate

Bloomberg slumps sharply in the nomination betting after coming under fierce attacks in the Las Vegas debate

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It was Bernie’s toughest night as well As everybody was expecting the first appearance on a debate stage by Mike Bloomberg was going to see him as the main target by the other leading contenders in the race. This is how the New York Times is reporting it:  “The Democratic presidential candidates turned on one another in scorching and personal terms in a debate on Wednesday night, with two of the leading candidates, Senator Bernie Sanders and Michael R. Bloomberg,…

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It is crunch time tonight for Mike Bloomberg as he faces his first WH2020 debate

It is crunch time tonight for Mike Bloomberg as he faces his first WH2020 debate

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No doubt he’ll be the target of all the contenders Until now multi billionaire Mike Bloomberg has taken an unusual approach to his bid for the Democratic nomination. For starters he has skipped the tedious business of fundraising paying for his hugely expensive campaign himself. Secondly he has bypassed the first four primaries focusing all his efforts and money on the Super Tuesday states which vote on March 3. Also until now he has avoided the regular TV debates between…

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Some Corbyn backers still not persuaded that GE2019 was the total disaster for their party that it was

Some Corbyn backers still not persuaded that GE2019 was the total disaster for their party that it was

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This seems a simple thing to do but haven’t seen it anywhere yet so here it is: Labour % vote share change between 2015 and 2019, by seat, giving the “net Corbyn effect” on the Labour share https://t.co/Ls5hW6GQGg — Simon (@simonk_133) February 17, 2020 Many LAB votes on December 12th were in spite of Corbyn not for him After GE2017 many within the Labour movement chose not to regard the outcome as a defeat but as a victory because the…

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A Journal Of The Plague Year. The politics of Covid-19

A Journal Of The Plague Year. The politics of Covid-19

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If you aren’t worried, you haven’t been paying attention.  Recent outbreaks of contagious illnesses – SARS, Ebola, bird flu – have been contained fairly efficiently.  So, many have assumed that the same will apply to the coronavirus Covid-19. That’s not inevitable.   On such occasions, everyone becomes an instant expert in epidemiology.  Let’s try to avoid that and concentrate on what we do, and more importantly, don’t know.  We don’t know with any reliability how many cases there are now (China…

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Punters rate Bernie as an 84% chance in Nevada but level pegging with Biden in S Carolina

Punters rate Bernie as an 84% chance in Nevada but level pegging with Biden in S Carolina

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These are the latest charts from Betdata.io on the next two Democratic primaries in WH2020. Essentially they show how punters who are risking their cash are rating these two races. My own view is that both Biden and Sanders are far too old to be rated as candidates for the presidency and that sooner or later a younger centrist will emerge. At the moment Biden, based on the first two states to decide appears in a stronger position than Biden…

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