Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

Can anyone challenge the green and orange waves?

A guest slot by GreenMachine A lot has happened since the 2017 election and the Northern Ireland Executive has been out of office for 3 years now, What will we see this in the election!? First of all we’re going to start with the more obvious results. Belfast West: S.F have held this seat since the 1980’s bar the 1992 election where the S.D.L.P won by several hundred votes. S.F regained control of Belfast West in 1997 (shortly after the Peace…

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Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

Why I’m now a seller of LAB seats on the Spreads.

YouGov English regional polling has LAB in 3rd place in the Eastern region the South East and South West We haven’t yet looked at the series of English regional polls that YouGov carried out last month and has only just published them.  This is the first time I can recall this form of polling being carried out across England and the results help us to see where parties are doing well. The South West has always been a key battleground…

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We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?

We should be heading for a low turnout – who would that benefit?

Dark nights and dismal campaigning will not enthuse waverers There are four main factors in an election turnout: how important voters view the poll, how close they expect the result to be locally, how close they think it’ll be nationally, and what the prevailing local culture is towards voting. On that basis, you’d expect the general election to have a pretty decent turnout. Of the two national variables, there is genuinely a major issue at stake with Brexit, as well…

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Foxes and Hedgehogs – a tale of tactics without strategy

Foxes and Hedgehogs – a tale of tactics without strategy

“Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.” (Sun Tzu). Something those Remainer MPs behind the Benn Act would do well to reflect on. However successful it was in stopping a Halloween No Deal exit and, arguably, forcing Boris to negotiate a Withdrawal Agreement he could sell to his party, its effect has been to put the Tories in a strong position as they embark on their General Election campaign. How so? It allows Boris to say that he:- Got the Withdrawal Agreement…

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The battle to succeed Corbyn could soon be upon us and Long-Bailey retains her favourite position in the betting

The battle to succeed Corbyn could soon be upon us and Long-Bailey retains her favourite position in the betting

This is a betting market that we have hardly paid any attention to because Corbyn has appeared so secure. Well he’s indicated that if LAB loses the election then he will step down so the chances are that the fight could start before Christmas. Corbyn has been there from September 2015 and has faced three PMs. We know that leading figures in the party have stated that the next LAB leader should be woman and as can be seen all…

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LAB’s GE17 performance is misleading as a tactical voting guide because since then its reputation has been tainted by antisemitism

LAB’s GE17 performance is misleading as a tactical voting guide because since then its reputation has been tainted by antisemitism

There weren’t front pages like this before GE2017 So far the LAB GE19 campaign has been dominated by furious attacks like the one above from the Jewish Chronicle and nearly half a dozen candidates having to stand aside because they are on record as stated things that can be seen as anti semitic. For the Labour party that is going into this election continues to be afflicted by impact of it and its leader’s actions on this form of racism….

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The spread markets the Tories down a touch but still heading for a majority

The spread markets the Tories down a touch but still heading for a majority

SportingIndex The Greens up following the United for Remain moves Until we get the final outcome I’m planning to do regular posts on the Commons Seats spread-betting market from SportingIndex. This will act as a useful reference to how things have changed and how punters are seeing things. What I like about these markets is this gets right down to the general election outcome in terms of seats. This is a form of betting for those ready to risk what…

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The Unite to Remain Alliance: The seats where one of the Greens/the LDs or PC will be given a clear run

The Unite to Remain Alliance: The seats where one of the Greens/the LDs or PC will be given a clear run

The LDS and Greens are standing aside for Plaid Cymru in the following Welsh seats: Arfon (Held) Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Held) Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Held) Ynys Mon Pontypridd Caerphilly Llanelli The LDs are standing aside for the Green in these English seats Brighton Pavilion (Held) Isle of Wight Bury St Edmunds Bristol West Stroud Dulwich & West Norwood Cannock Chase Exeter Forest of Dean PC and the Green party are standing aside for the LDs  in the following Welsh seats:…

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