Biden way ahead in tonight’s four big primaries

Biden way ahead in tonight’s four big primaries

Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio look set to give him big victories When the timetable of primaries for this year’s presidential election came out a lot of people were looking at tonight as being when the race would finally be resolved. That is no longer the case because Joe Biden effectively wrapped up the nomination at the start of the month on Super Tuesday. The big question now is how long is Bernie Sanders gong to stay in the race…

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Budgeting for a crisis

Budgeting for a crisis

It used to be that after a Budget the days and papers would be full of analysis and reactions and, often, the discovery of nasty surprises or other changes backfiring on the government. (Remember Osborne’s “pasty tax” or Hammond’s NI surprise?) Not this year, obviously. The measures introduced in the Budget to help deal with the economic consequences of the coronavirus, however welcome, now seem too little for the scale of the task. In summary (the details are here – in sections…

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My bets over the past couple of days – Ed Davey and Matt Hancock

My bets over the past couple of days – Ed Davey and Matt Hancock

Hancock for next CON leader and PM: Davey for LD leadership I understand that the LD leadership contest to find a successor to Jo Swinson will take place in May though, clearly, there will be nothing like the level of hustings meetings that we’d normally see.I understand that the LD leadership contest to find a successor to Jo Swinson will take place in May though, clearly, there will be nothing like the level of hustings meetings that we’d normally see….

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After the fall

After the fall

If shrunk to a comparable size, the earth would be smoother than a ping pong ball.  The earth’s atmosphere is thinner than the skin on a ping pong ball. Most of the time we forget how much our whole life is lived in a tiny margin and how dependent we are on its seeming stability. Life does not feel stable now.  Whole countries are being quarantined, the banalities of international travel are shuddering to a halt.  In War Of The…

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Back in the world of political betting Biden confirms that his VP pick will be a woman

Back in the world of political betting Biden confirms that his VP pick will be a woman

Given that 77 year old ex-VP, Joe Biden, is increasingly looking like a certainty for the Democratic nomination the main WH2020 betting market of interest has become who he will choose as his VP nominee. This is generally a personal choice of the nominee to be put before the party convention for approval.Because of his age, 77, there’ll be a greater interest than usual and the choice needs to add to the overall ticket. In the latest TV debate last…

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Events, events – how even a government with a big majority can be knocked off course

Events, events – how even a government with a big majority can be knocked off course

Who can now remember that far off time – those few weeks between the election and Xmas – when it seemed as if the agonies of the previous three years were finally over? For good or ill, there was a government with a majority, Brexit (at least the departure) would no longer agonise the country (at least not quite so painfully and visibly), Corbyn was on his way out and there was the interesting spectacle of seeing how the Tories…

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Herd immunity. The big political risk the government is running

Herd immunity. The big political risk the government is running

Amid all the panic buying, one thing that is still found in abundance is self-declared expertise. Social media is suddenly awash with new immunologists and virologists (BSc Twitter), all very ready to critique or bolster the government’s approach to the Covid-19 crisis. Is the government aiming for herd immunity? Should the government be aiming for herd immunity? What timeframe should we expect herd immunity in? Let me draw on my own area of expertise as a pensions lawyer. For if…

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