Does this Indy writer have a point – is Boris now really that vulnerable and will be out by Christmas?

Does this Indy writer have a point – is Boris now really that vulnerable and will be out by Christmas?

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The above article has been posted this afternoon on The Independent website and puts forward what Sir Humphrey would describe as a ” very courageous” prediction. Sure Boris has not had the best of times leading a government facing the pandemic and sure the UK’s comparative record has not been that great. O’Grady notes in his piece:- “Every bumbling performance at prime minister’s questions, each stumbling appearance at a coronavirus media conference, each bit of misguided spin that emanates from Downing Street,…

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Chancellor Sunak’s looking strong in the polling – HomeSec Patel a liability

Chancellor Sunak’s looking strong in the polling – HomeSec Patel a liability

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Just over five months after GE2019 – how Johnson and his top team are being rated The chart above is based on the latest favourably polling by YouGov a series that I had a hand in creating a few years back. Of all the leader rating formats the one I like the best is on favourability. I think its simple directness gives a better view than leader satisfaction or approval. After all I’m sure many Tory backers at GE2019 if…

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Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warren

Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warren

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In recent weeks the Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, has appeared to be falling back in the race to become the vice presidential nominee for the Democrats at the White House election in November. In the betting she’s now dropped to third favourite behind Harris and Klobuchar. A big problem is that if she became VP she could no longer serve as a senator and for a few months the decision on who should represent state in her position would…

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The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown

The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown

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Baby it’s cold outside. And don’t the public know it. The government’s Stay Home, Stay Safe campaign has been stunningly effective. A large chunk of the public is now firmly committed to Staying Home and Saving Lives.  They aren’t going to stop doing that just because a mere Prime Minister tells them otherwise. They’re having the mother of all duvet days. This is now becoming a problem. The government needs the economy to revive as soon as possible. It can only do so…

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How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

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Since the last election resulted in a substantial Conservative majority, many have said that Labour has a mountain to climb to win the next one.  The implication is that the result this time significantly influences the result next time.  The results in 2024 are influenced by the results in 2019.   But is that true?  In the jargon, do general election results suffer from serial autocorrelation – that bane of second year graduate students in statistical fields?   Serial autocorrelation defined If…

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Vice President nominee betting. A market that it is better to lay than back

Vice President nominee betting. A market that it is better to lay than back

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If there’s one market that I usually avoid it is the Vice Presidential nominee markets, I couldn’t tip more rubbish if you give me a forklift truck and I’m not alone as punters are determined to give the politics team at Ladbrokes a very nice Christmas bonus by pushing the price of Michelle Obama as the Veep pick down to 10/1. One of the reasons I avoid this market is that there’s a history of the successful candidate coming from…

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28 Weeks Later: The Coronavirus Aftermath for the NHS and its Political Implications

28 Weeks Later: The Coronavirus Aftermath for the NHS and its Political Implications

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“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning”  The NHS has come through the first phase substantially intact, but with considerable losses, and a mixed performance at best, as ably outlined by Cyclefree in a previous header. Moving to the next phase is a challenge across all the domains of economics and society, but my thoughts turn to the next phase for the NHS….

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The government’s approval rating falls a massive net 45% since the start of the lockdown

The government’s approval rating falls a massive net 45% since the start of the lockdown

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Not much detail available yet from the Opinium poll for the Observer but what we do have is pretty devastating for the government. On March 26th, just after the lockdown came in, the pollster that came out best at GE2019 found a net 43% in the government’s approval rating. Tonight’s poll has that down to a net minus 3. So overall a 45 point drop in seven weeks. I’ve updated this to include the Opinium chart showing its trend.