Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warren

Jo Biden’s VP pick – why we shouldn’t rule out Elizabeth Warren

Comments 0 Comment

In recent weeks the Senator from Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, has appeared to be falling back in the race to become the vice presidential nominee for the Democrats at the White House election in November. In the betting she’s now dropped to third favourite behind Harris and Klobuchar. A big problem is that if she became VP she could no longer serve as a senator and for a few months the decision on who should represent state in her position would…

Read More Read More

The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown

The boys who cried sheep. The politics of the end of lockdown

Comments 0 Comment

Baby it’s cold outside. And don’t the public know it. The government’s Stay Home, Stay Safe campaign has been stunningly effective. A large chunk of the public is now firmly committed to Staying Home and Saving Lives.  They aren’t going to stop doing that just because a mere Prime Minister tells them otherwise. They’re having the mother of all duvet days. This is now becoming a problem. The government needs the economy to revive as soon as possible. It can only do so…

Read More Read More

How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

How steep is Starmer’s mountain?

Comments 0 Comment

Since the last election resulted in a substantial Conservative majority, many have said that Labour has a mountain to climb to win the next one.  The implication is that the result this time significantly influences the result next time.  The results in 2024 are influenced by the results in 2019.   But is that true?  In the jargon, do general election results suffer from serial autocorrelation – that bane of second year graduate students in statistical fields?   Serial autocorrelation defined If…

Read More Read More

Vice President nominee betting. A market that it is better to lay than back

Vice President nominee betting. A market that it is better to lay than back

Comments 0 Comment

If there’s one market that I usually avoid it is the Vice Presidential nominee markets, I couldn’t tip more rubbish if you give me a forklift truck and I’m not alone as punters are determined to give the politics team at Ladbrokes a very nice Christmas bonus by pushing the price of Michelle Obama as the Veep pick down to 10/1. One of the reasons I avoid this market is that there’s a history of the successful candidate coming from…

Read More Read More

28 Weeks Later: The Coronavirus Aftermath for the NHS and its Political Implications

28 Weeks Later: The Coronavirus Aftermath for the NHS and its Political Implications

Comments 0 Comment

“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning”  The NHS has come through the first phase substantially intact, but with considerable losses, and a mixed performance at best, as ably outlined by Cyclefree in a previous header. Moving to the next phase is a challenge across all the domains of economics and society, but my thoughts turn to the next phase for the NHS….

Read More Read More

The government’s approval rating falls a massive net 45% since the start of the lockdown

The government’s approval rating falls a massive net 45% since the start of the lockdown

Comments 0 Comment

Not much detail available yet from the Opinium poll for the Observer but what we do have is pretty devastating for the government. On March 26th, just after the lockdown came in, the pollster that came out best at GE2019 found a net 43% in the government’s approval rating. Tonight’s poll has that down to a net minus 3. So overall a 45 point drop in seven weeks. I’ve updated this to include the Opinium chart showing its trend.

Joe Biden’s VP pick – the case for 40/1 Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth

Joe Biden’s VP pick – the case for 40/1 Iraq war veteran Tammy Duckworth

Comments 0 Comment

This weekend the junior senator for Illinois, Tammy Duckworth, is due to have a meeting with presumptive nominee, Joe Biden, about the possibility of her being on the ticket in November. What is striking about Duckworth is her extraordinary backstory and the way she’s triumphed over some terrible injuries incurred while serving in the US armed forces. Back in 2004 she was a helicopter pilot in Iraq which got attacked the result of which left her having to have both…

Read More Read More

Why Starmer is unlikely to be the next PM

Why Starmer is unlikely to be the next PM

Comments 0 Comment

CON MPs will replace their leader if they feel Johnson’s shine has gone For the moment, Boris Johnson walks on water in terms of popularity. He enjoys positive approval ratings, his party sits on opinion poll leads of around 20% and is hoovering up about half the vote. All of which is likely to count for very little in a year’s time, never mind three. It goes without saying that these are abnormal times and that we should therefore treat…

Read More Read More