4/1 is value that he’ll pardon himself this term Decorum has never featured highly among Donald Trump’s characteristics. If you view life rather like a computer game where the High Scores are measured in dollars and ratings, and any casulaties along the way can be dismissed as casually as a pixellated image, norms of behaviour are of little consequence. And decorum is certainly not what to expect should Trump lose in November. And he should lose. RCP give Joe Biden…
From Keiran Pedley – now of Ipsos-MORI It is fair to say that Keir Starmer has made a positive start to life as Labour leader. Our latest figures from the Ipsos MORI political monitor show that 51% of the British public are satisfied with the job Starmer is doing, 20% are dissatisfied and 29% don’t know. Starmer’s net satisfaction score of +31 has never been beaten by a leader of the opposition in the 40+ years we have been tracking…
She says a person of colour should be chosen The big political betting news is a piece in the New York Times reporting that Senator Amy Klobuchar has written to Joe Biden saying she doesn’t want to be considered for the Democratic VP nomination. As the Betdata.io chart of the Betfair exchange shows Klobuchar was 24% second favourite less than a month ago. The paper reports: Ms. Klobuchar, a moderate and veteran of the Senate like Mr. Biden, was known…
In a move that seems unprecedented Facebook has taken down Trump ads infringing the sites policies against organized hate. This looks like a big pointer to how it will operate at WH2020 where the giant social media site was expected to play a huge role. The ads involved are said to have attacked what the Trump campaign described as “Dangerous MOBS of far-left groups,” featured an upside-down triangle. It is said the triangle “is practically identical to that used by…
On the inaugural Ipsos MORI Politics & Society podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Ayesha Hazarika, Alastair Campbell and the Ipsos-MORI Chief Executive Ben Page to discuss historic poll ratings for the new Labour leader and where the Labour Party go from here after a historic defeat in December. You can listen to the podcast below: Keiran Pedley Keiran, who used to run the Politicalbetting/Polling Matters Podcasts is no stranger to PB. He is now Research Director, Public Affairs, at…
The revelations make Trump’s WH2020 re-election challenge even harder The big news in the White House race overnight are the first revelations from a book that’s just about to be published by John Bolton – who served as the National Security Advisor for seventeen months. What makes this very different from other memoirs on the Trump presidency is that it comes from someone at the very top who was closely involved in observing the President’s foreign policy dealings at first…
This one is particularly important because Senator Lindsay Graham has emerged as the main attack dog for Trump. It very much undermines what he is trying to do now as part of helping the President get re-elected. This is potentially a powerful line of attack on Trump raising questions over the President’s health and ,mental capacity.
The more I think about the US election, the more I think we’re underweighting the edge scenarios. And of the edge scenarios, I think the one we’re underweighting most is the one where the Democrats have a really good night. Why? Well, let’s start with the obvious. President Trump won by the narrowest of margins in 2016. To demonstrate this, let’s play “spin the wheel”. What we’re going to do is run a little simulation with every state in 2016….