Can Johnson raise the Tories’ game above Easy mode? Can Labour force him to?

Can Johnson raise the Tories’ game above Easy mode? Can Labour force him to?

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Governments with no effective opposition become arrogant and complacent Why did the Lib Dems choose the Tories over Labour after the inconclusive 2010 general election? Although only a decade ago, it could as well have been a lifetime given how much has changed since – and in the last five years in particular. But that change makes the question all the more pertinent. The numbers were a big part of it, of course. The Tories could promise a stable government…

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New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead

New YouGov poll has the Tories back with a double digit lead

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The biggest lead in any poll since May The changes of course are within the margin of error and YouGov has been tending to show the Tories doing better than some other pollsters. Last weekend Opinium, the pollster which got the last general election most right, had the gap at just 4%. This may be just a positive effect of the pandemic apparently getting slightly better in the UK and of course the easing in the lockdown rules. Things start…

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Is Johnson really going to stick it out as PM till the next general election?

Is Johnson really going to stick it out as PM till the next general election?

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Ladbrokes make it 3/2 that he’ll be gone by then In his column in the Times this morning about the rise of Rishi Sunak Times writer Iain Martin makes the following astute observation about Boris’s career plans: At the heart of whispered Conservative calculations is the great unspoken truth of Tory affairs right now: it will be surprising if Mr Johnson fights the next election. The prime minister does not look like a man up for another five to ten…

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With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has settled down with Davey now clear favourite

With nominations closing today the LD leadership betting has settled down with Davey now clear favourite

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The latest chart of the Betdata.io LD leadership market shows that Davey is now the clear favourite on 57% with Moran trailing on 41%. We are shortly to go into the next phases in the race with online hustings taking place before the ballot packs go out. The result won’t be known until the last week in August. In non-lockdown LD elections the hustings have played a big part and my guess is that the online sessions should attract good…

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New YouGov polling finds Brits more ready consider traveling overseas than foreigners ready to come to the UK

New YouGov polling finds Brits more ready consider traveling overseas than foreigners ready to come to the UK

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Given the current Covid19 figures for the UK then it is hardly surprising that Brits are more inclined to consider travelling to other countries than those who live there want to come here. The biggest gap is with France which in normal times is the UK favourite travel destination. As can be seen 21% of Brits would consider going to France compared with just 5% of French people ready to consider coming in the other direction. Essentially the pandemic league…

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How the papers are treating Sunak’s pandemic budget

How the papers are treating Sunak’s pandemic budget

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Sunak’s leadership hopes rest on his massive financial gamble coming off Inevitably there is a split between what we used to call the tabloids which focus on the meal deal while the Guardian the Telegraph and the Financial Times highlight the big overall worries for the economy. There are two big areas for concern summed up by the Guardian’s focus on possible job losses and the FT’s emphasis on the huge amount of borrowing that will be required. The Times…

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House effect. The Polish presidential election

House effect. The Polish presidential election

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Not Europe again?  I’m afraid so.  Fortunately, this time it’s for an election: the Polish presidential election.  The health of Poland’s democracy has been in question for some time, with the government going down the Hungarian route of controlling the media, packing the courts and using chicanery to exploit the advantages of government to the hilt. The Polish public have the opportunity, should they so choose, to change this on Sunday.  The second round of the presidential election takes place…

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A big day for Sunak – now as big a threat to Starmer as he is to Johnson

A big day for Sunak – now as big a threat to Starmer as he is to Johnson

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Rishi who was 250/1 when tipped on PB as next PM eight months ago Today the big political news will be the summer statement by the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, which is being dubbed “the Coronacvirus Mini Budget”. This comes after an extraordinary nine months when has emerged from relative obscurity to be one of the biggest players in UK politics. He’s betting favourite to be Johnson’s successor and second favourite, behind Starmer, for next PM. It is hard to realise…

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