Labour seems to have forgotten how to ‘do’ Opposition

Labour seems to have forgotten how to ‘do’ Opposition

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Governments-in-waiting set the agenda Ed Miliband is unfairly maligned. It’s true that he couldn’t eat a bacon sandwich gracefully. It’s also true that he was always a bit of a wonk and, in the testosterone-fuelled world of Westminster and electoral politics, a bit beta. Even now, his brother is shorter odds to be next Labour leader than he is (50/1 and 80/1, respectively), despite his not having been an MP for seven years, while Ed is once again in the…

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Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor who got under Trump’s skin, moves up sharply in the Biden VP pick betting

Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor who got under Trump’s skin, moves up sharply in the Biden VP pick betting

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Punters rush to bet on her after reports of secret face to face meeting with Biden In the early days of the Biden VP pick saga Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of the highly marginal state of Michigan, was one of the early favourites. Her state has been one of the worst hit by the pandemic and there was a highly public clash between her and the President after she was said not to have shown enough gratitude to Trump for his…

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Just a year and a bit after becoming PM Johnson finds him trailing in YouGov’s “Best PM” polling

Just a year and a bit after becoming PM Johnson finds him trailing in YouGov’s “Best PM” polling

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But the same poll has the Tories 6% ahead One of the things about this regular polling question on who people would prefer as PM is that the incumbent generally gets a huge boost and it is only very rare that we have a finding like that from YouGov today which puts the LOTO in the top slot. To analyse what has happened I thought it might be useful to put the crossheads into to a chart as shown above…

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Only days away now from the Biden VP choice and it’ll be a huge surprise if it is not Kamala Harris or Susan Rice

Only days away now from the Biden VP choice and it’ll be a huge surprise if it is not Kamala Harris or Susan Rice

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The Democratic convention is due to start, in a virtual form because of the pandemic, on August 17th and the big development in the run up to the opening will be Joe Biden’s choice of running mate. This is currently the most active political betting market and overnight Betfair had ex-US UN Ambassador as a 32% chance with California Senator Kamala Harris hovering just below 50%. These are the only two who are getting the media coverage at the moment…

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While the nation has been enjoying Sunak’s half price food deal he’s been knocked backwards in the PM v Chancellor polling

While the nation has been enjoying Sunak’s half price food deal he’s been knocked backwards in the PM v Chancellor polling

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We’ve now had the initial three day session of the extraordinary half price meal deal announced by Chancellor Sunak last month and from my totally unscientific findings it has certainly grabbed the public’s attention. Just about everybody I’ve meet over the first three days is talking about it and certainly participating cafes and restaurants seemed to have been full. The only complaint where I was yesterday was that it was so busy that we all had to wait 45 minutes…

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Is this the Dem Duo to take on Trump and win back power?

Is this the Dem Duo to take on Trump and win back power?

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On Betfair its Harris 52%, Rice 24% and 7% the field With the Democratic convention due to take place the week after next year its getting very close to the point where Joe Biden announces who will join him on the ticket in the presidential election on November 3rd. As far as punters are concerned this is now a straight choice between the the Californian senator, Kamala Harris and the former Obama aide who worked closely with Biden in the…

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Polling Analysis: Amongst likely voters Opinium has Starmer with 4% lead over Johnson as best PM

Polling Analysis: Amongst likely voters Opinium has Starmer with 4% lead over Johnson as best PM

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A guest slot from Wulfrun Phil on latest Opinium poll Published responses to supplementary polling questions are not routinely filtered to limit responses only to those likely to vote in a General Election. That can distort interpretations of “Best PM” polling, because only the responses from those who will vote are ultimately relevant.  Helpfully, Opinium provide so much rich detail in their data tables here that we can apply the filtering ourselves. In their latest poll, the full unfiltered sample…

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