If there was a betting market on Williamson not being Education Secretary on New Year’s Day I know which side of the bet I’d be backing
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The Biden-Trump betting narrows as the Democratic convention, now virtual, opens
This is certain to be the biggest political betting event of all time Today was due to be the start of the huge gathering in the Wisconsin city of Milwaukee, of Democrats for their convention to formally decide on the nomination and then to launch the campaign which finishes on November 3rd. These generally get wall to wall coverage on the networks and are a great platform to move forward. Unfortunately this year we have coronavirus which is still at…
On the eve of the virtual Democratic convention new polling shows strong support for Biden’s VP choice Kamala Harris
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll has good news for the Democrats on the eve of their virtual convention and after a week which has seen Kamala Harris become Biden’s VP pick. The data shows that more Americans approve than disapprove of Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris by a 25-point margin, 54% to 29%. Amongst Republican voters the split is is 25-55% – so quite a high proportion backing the Senator from California. The split amongst Democrats is 86-8%. Another positive figure…
Labour’s Corbynistas have yet to face the unpalatable fact that their man won GE2019 for Boris
A theme that doesn’t seem to go away on UK political social media is the attempt by many Jeremy Corbyn supporters to keep on claiming that their man actually did better than his two general election defeats would suggest. I get it repeatedly on my Twitter feed with all sorts of machinations being made to the 2017 general election results to try to prove how close Corbyn came to becoming Prime Minister. They are happy to quote that election rather…
Going postal: Could a Democrat victory end up lost in the post?
This is why Trump is trying to stop the US Postal Service from processing ballot papers: The partisan split in how Americans would like to vote is immense.– 17% who back Trump prefer to vote by mail– 58% who back Biden prefer the mail option. pic.twitter.com/notTbOjOVu — David Herdson (@DavidHerdson) August 14, 2020 A funding crisis, a hollowing out of capacity and much greater demands could stretch the USPS to breaking point There are six general processes that need to…
Lesson from the Veepstakes
A guest slot from Pip Moss on what they’ve learned from betting on Joe Biden’s running mate With Biden’s search for a running mate being the focus of endless media speculation for several months now, it is tempting to be grateful it is over and move on. But before we do I am spending a moment coming up with my strategy for the 2024 Veepstakes, and I think you should too. Four years is a long time, and while it…
WH2020: Intriguing new poll question from Fox News – how do you think your neighbours will vote?
The latest Fox News WH2020 poll has Biden leading Trump by 49% to 42%. But when the sample was asked how they thought their neighbours would vote Trump was on 39% with Biden on 32%. This is a question I’ve never seen before and is really quite interesting. It highlights what has been recorded elsewhere that although Biden might have clear lead his backers are nothing like as enthusiastic a Trump ones. I should add that Fox News poll is…
So far the Kamala Harris announcement hasn’t impacted on the WH2020 betting
So far there has been very little polling carried out after yesterday’s big announcement that Kamala Harris will be the nominee for VP. In the betting markets the news, which has been widely covered in the US, has hardly moved Biden is seen as about a 60% chance. Last night there was a big event, alas without an audience, in which Harris gave her first big speech since she got on the ticket and however you arrange things this is…