If the Tories are to lose their majority there has to be an “understanding” between Starmer and Davey

If the Tories are to lose their majority there has to be an “understanding” between Starmer and Davey

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So the punters had the LD leadership contest right. In a relatively low turnout election (57% of members) Sir Ed Davey beat Layla Moran by 63.5% to 36.5%. This was largely expected and broadly in line with the YouGov members’ poll last January. Davey has been acting leader since the GE2019 defeat in her constituency of Jo Swinson and today’s outcome puts him in a much better position to deal with Keir Starmer on an approach to the next election…

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Trump edges up even more on Betfair and now a 45.5% chance

Trump edges up even more on Betfair and now a 45.5% chance

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Could they soon be level? Even though the polls continue to have Biden with a significant lead over Trump punters remain increasingly convinced that this is a much tighter race than the data might appear. The latest prices on the Betfair Exchange have Trump moving up to a 45.5% chance and there is still some way to go before the GOP convention closes late on Thursday night US time. Again the thinking of the Trump backers is dominated by their…

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Migration to New Server

Migration to New Server

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Hi all, We’re moving PB over to a shiny, new server, with lots of additional chrome and bells and whistles and added security and all that lark. It’s highly likely there will be downtime in the next 12 hours. I’ll try and keep it to a minimum, but no promises. Thanks Robert

Just because Trump pulled off a surprise victory at GE2016 doesn’t mean he’ll do it again

Just because Trump pulled off a surprise victory at GE2016 doesn’t mean he’ll do it again

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The betting on Trump is completely out of line with all the indicators Having come out of the Democratic presidential and VP markets with a reasonable profit my attention is now focussed on the main WH2020 winner market and what I consider to be very tempting odds betting that a Trump victory won’t happen. I prefer to lay Trump rather than bet on Biden because it gives me more options. Biden’s age increases the possibility that something might happen and…

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Get ready for the UK “MidTerms” May 6th 2021

Get ready for the UK “MidTerms” May 6th 2021

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A crucial test for Johnson, Starmer, and the new LD leader One of the consequences of the the pandemic is that this year’s May local elections had to be postponed and also there have been no council by elections. Clearly having voting taking place while coronavirus is having such an impact would not be a good idea but democratic institutions have to carry on and renew themselves. So assuming there is no further postponement then the country looks set for…

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And now what’s dividing the nation – the Beeb’s decision to play Rule Britannia without the lyrics at the Proms

And now what’s dividing the nation – the Beeb’s decision to play Rule Britannia without the lyrics at the Proms

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I reproduce this poll because it is not often you get an issue that produces a political divide like this. Tories and Leavers, where there is a lot of overlap, are very much opposed to the BBC’s decision while LAB and LD backers are less sure. In my days as a BBC PR man, admittedly more than a third of a century ago, I would have been delighted at the attention this is getting. It says something about the institution….

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The father-in-law of Dominic Cummings reported to be saying that Boris will stand down “within six months”

The father-in-law of Dominic Cummings reported to be saying that Boris will stand down “within six months”

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Time for a punt on Boris going early? Quite how much you can trust this is hard to say but it might be worth a bet. I’ve just laid the Boris exit date being July 2022 or later on Betfair at 1.56. This is being denied by Downing Street but then it would be.

Trump making the election all about himself just feeds into Biden’s strategy

Trump making the election all about himself just feeds into Biden’s strategy

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Tonight sees the start of the virtual Republican party convention and the big speech is going to come from Trump. Same thing on Tuesday and on Wednesday right till Thursday night with Trump nightly being the star speaker. This is in sharp contrast with normal US convention where you build up to the big event on the final evening being nominee’s big speech. He doesn’t say anything public until that stage. That was how Biden played it last week and…

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