The betting on Trump is completely out of line with all the indicators
Having come out of the Democratic presidential and VP markets with a reasonable profit my attention is now focussed on the main WH2020 winner market and what I consider to be very tempting odds betting that a Trump victory won’t happen.
I prefer to lay Trump rather than bet on Biden because it gives me more options. Biden’s age increases the possibility that something might happen and I’d prefer not to take the risk at the price of getting slightly worse odds laying Trump rather than backing Biden.
The main question from a betting perspective is whether I’ll get a better return waiting for the Trump price to move up further. This is always tricky but I’ve decided now to start laying Trump
The one big event that could possibly impact on the market is the first Presidential debate on September 29th. Team Trump is hoping for a Biden gaffe or something that they can use to make their “he isn’t mentally capable” argument.
But Biden came out of the primary debates unscathed and he’ll probably rise to the occasion. In any case a week later is the VP debate and here Kamala Harris is surely going to outshine Pence