A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

A Politico survey of early voting data in key WH2020 swing states finds the Democrats building up a marked advantage

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Early voting has been going on for a a few days now in group of key states where it’s possible from the data that is being made available to get some indication of how the WH2020 battle is going. Of course no votes have been counted yet – this is all derived from the numbers requesting to vote by mail linked and with what is known about them. In several of the States where information is available we are told…

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Falling down

Falling down

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Michael Douglas’s defining performance remains his leading role in Falling Down. He plays the part of a man who, when his car gets stuck in an unending traffic jam, steps out on foot and strikes against the annoyances and dangers of everyday life in a way that audiences would have dreamt of but never have dared. One of the joys of the film is how it leads its audience to identify with and cheer on a man who act out…

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If you want to bet that the WH2020 polls are wrong you need longer odds than currently available

If you want to bet that the WH2020 polls are wrong you need longer odds than currently available

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A former PB regular has been in touch with me to say that we’ve got it all wrong over the betting on the American election. He argues that Trump is in a much better position than several of the recent posts on the site have suggested and there are reasons to believe that the US polling is is not correct. Now he may be right and come early November those who have backed Trump will be delighted at the prospect…

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New YouGov pollings finds that a majority of those sampled think the Covid 19 crisis is getting worse

New YouGov pollings finds that a majority of those sampled think the Covid 19 crisis is getting worse

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There’s been a huge jump since the end of August I find the above chart absolutely fascinating because it shows very dramatically the changes in the public’s perception of how the pandemic is going. We are not back to the May to July period but there has been a lot of movement in in the past few days. A 32% to 54% jump is massive. May be the reality of what the pandemic has done and fears of the immediate…

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Trump decides that he doesn’t need special preparation for the WH2020 TV debates

Trump decides that he doesn’t need special preparation for the WH2020 TV debates

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Given their importance this sounds like a risky strategy The next big event in the White House race is the the first TV debate between Trump and Biden – something that at previous elections contenders have put a lot of effort preparing for trying to anticipate how the event will go and have ready some biting attack lines. So it is rather surprising that the incumbent, Mr. Trump, has decided to spurn the normal preparation. According to NBC News: The…

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That was then. This is now.

That was then. This is now.

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Cyclefree on attitudes to obeying the law “Britain does not break treaties. It would be bad for Britain, bad for our relations with the rest of the world and bad for any future treaty on trade we may wish to make.” – Margaret Thatcher , Leader of the Opposition, April 1975 “The first duty of government is to uphold the law. If it tries to bob and weave and duck around that duty when it’s inconvenient, if government does that,…

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Why the Johnson/Cummings “ignore the treaty” move sets bad precedents

Why the Johnson/Cummings “ignore the treaty” move sets bad precedents

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My son, Robert, posted this comment on the last thread which nearly sums up the dangers and I think deserves greater prominence. He wrote: “1.It’s bad for Northern IrelandBoris Johnson can’t walk back on his plans to abrogate now, without causing an enormous problem with the Unionist community in Northern Ireland. It’s creating another “stabbed in the back” myth. On the other hand, if you do abrogate, and we walk away from the Withdrawal Agreement, then it will create equally…

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