Now the Johnson/Cummings move to change the Brexit agreement threatens a US-UK trade deal

Now the Johnson/Cummings move to change the Brexit agreement threatens a US-UK trade deal

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One of the big challenges presented by Brexit is that the UK needs to make trade deals with nations that before had deals with the EU and there’s a reminder of the pressure that can be exerted in the above letter from Washington DC. For in the US any trade deal would have to be approved by the House of Representatives which, of course could lead to all sorts of other issues being raised. A nation operating on its own…

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A back down by Boris on his “break international law Bill” ?

A back down by Boris on his “break international law Bill” ?

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The above Tweet from the Times suggests that the Prime Minister is thinking of compromising over his controversial Brexit move which would ignore a Treaty obligation which is in breach of international law. This would seem entirely logical because the chances are that the bill will have a rough time in the House of Lords. There is the Salisbury convention that broadly states that the Upper House should not vote down measures that were in the manifesto of the wining…

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Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

Polling for Trump v Biden is following almost exactly the same pattern as for the 2018 Midterms

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If this continues Trump is out One of the striking features of the pattern of current Trump v Biden polling is how much it looks like the main polling for the Midterms in 2018. Just like that for the White House race now the Democratic lead in generic congressional polling followed a pretty constant 7-8% in the polling averages. As it turned out the 2018 surveys undershot the Dem final total by more than one point. The November 2018 Midterms…

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On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

On the biggest political betting market of all time Biden is still favourite but not by much

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On Betfair he’s 53% to Trump’s 45% We are more than seven weeks away from the Presidential Election on November 3rd yet we can state with certainty that this will be be biggest political betting event there has ever been. On the UK exchange, Betfair, a total of £82m+ has already been wagered on one market alone and that is just one bookmaker. All of the conventional firms and the spread betting companies have very active markets and by the…

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Johnson’s former Attorney-General, Geoffrey Cox, says he’ll rebel against the PM’s ignore international law bill

Johnson’s former Attorney-General, Geoffrey Cox, says he’ll rebel against the PM’s ignore international law bill

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He’s the biggest name so far With Johnson planning to push ahead with a law that would allow the government to ignore treaty obligations in relation to Brexit a big Tory figure and Brexiteer, former A-G Geoffrey Cox has told that Times that he plans to join the rebels when this comes before the house. It is being reported that Cox’s mind is made up despite several appeals by the PM over the weekend. A big element is not just…

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A Question

A Question

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This morning the Secretary of State for Justice and Lord Chancellor, Robert Buckland, said in TV interview on the BBC in a response to a question from Andrew Marr: “If I see the rule of law being broken in a way I find unacceptable then of course I will go.” Tomorrow – in a matter of hours from now – the Government has announced – but not yet published the necessary regulations – that any socialising at home or elsewhere…

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on a 269 electoral college tie, should I take this bet?

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Ladbrokes are offering 66/1 on there being an electoral college tie, by comparison Paddy Power are offering 33/1, I regard the Ladbrokes politics team led by Matthew Shaddick are the shrewdest political bookies out there, so this discrepancy caught my attention. There are a few routes to a 269 tie for example, ‘if Michigan, Pennsylvania and Nebraska’s 2nd District vote for Joe Biden rather than for Donald Trump as they did in 2016. Those shifts, if all other state outcomes…

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