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It looks as though Trump won’t press ahead with a Supreme Court nominee this side of the election

19/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

The big development in US politics in the past hour has been the above news from the White House that seems to suggest that Trump won’t seek to push through a Supreme Court nomination before the Presidential Election on November 3rd. This comes as something as a surprise given the comments by Senate Majority leader, Mitch McConnell. If this is indeed the case my guess is that is that they weren’t confident that they would get the backing required from…

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Ruthless: RBG’s death has given Trump a Black Swan to exploit

19/9/2020 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

The whole nature of the 2020 campaign has just changed. For all her liberal views, one of the most significant legacies of Ruth Bader Ginsburg – via the happenstance of when she died – might be to embed a conservative majority on the US Supreme Court for a generation. Time is short. The Republicans have only six weeks to secure a replacement if they are to be able to go to their voters and claim the achievement of having delivered…

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With just 46 days to go till WH2020 Biden moves up in the betting

18/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Trump in worse position at this point than when up against Hillary four years ago As each day goes by and we get closer to election day, now just 46 days off, there is no significant change in Trump’s position. He’s still trailing in national polls by markedly bigger margins than he was against Hillary Clinton last time and this must raise doubts about his prospects. A big factor is likely to be a higher turnout than we have seen…

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Does the Internal Markets Bill Compromise Work?

18/9/2020 CycleFree Comments 0 Comment

That rather depends on what the aim is But first, what does it actually do? The government’s compromise with Sir Bob Neill on his amendment does the following:- It gives the House of Commons (but not the Lords) the right to vote before the government triggers the clauses disapplying the provisions of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Act implementing it. It might even be (but hasn’t been – yet) called a Meaningful Vote. In a week when: – (a) regulations…

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WH2020: The courts put a halt on US Postal Service changes that could have impacted on the election outcome

17/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

This could be an important decision by the courts because Trump has made no secret of his desire to impede postal voting because he believes it strongly favours his opponent. This is from the Washington Post’s report of the judgement by Judge Stanley A. Bastian: The states have demonstrated that the defendants are involved in a politically motivated attack on the efficiency of the Postal Service. They have also demonstrated that this attack on the Postal Service is likely to…

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WH2020 betting: The best odds on Biden are the in the national markets – Trump punters should go for Michigan or Wisconsin

17/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

As I write (1100 BST) quite a gap in the betting value has developed between the Betfair exchange odds on the national party of the next president market and what is available in the key states that will decide this election. For there is almost no way that Trump can hang on unless he holds Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – the rust belt states that effectively gave him victory at WH2016. So currently the odds on available on the parties…

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Biden makes clear that a US-UK trade deal is dependent on NO hard border in Ireland

16/9/2020 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

We are now less than seven weeks from the US Presidential election and the national and swing state polling points to Joe Biden becoming the next President. So his intervention on the impact of what is resolved over Brexit and the Irish question is critical. This cannot be put on one side. The problem is that the question of the status of Northern Ireland was always going to be difficult if the UK left the EU. The whole essence of…

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Leave it to Cummings

16/9/2020 Editor Comments 0 Comment

And now for something for completely different I tell you, there are days that you can’t please anyone. It all started conventionally enough. The fresh morning light crept through the gap in the curtains and caressed my face with the tenderness of an unattended car alarm. The Moggster had introduced me to a patriotic drink called Lambrini the previous evening. I was now flying the Union Flag upside down. As I lay on my bed, sprawled and desolately flapping like a mackerel…

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