Trump in worse position at this point than when up against Hillary four years ago
As each day goes by and we get closer to election day, now just 46 days off, there is no significant change in Trump’s position. He’s still trailing in national polls by markedly bigger margins than he was against Hillary Clinton last time and this must raise doubts about his prospects.
A big factor is likely to be a higher turnout than we have seen in recent times and if what happened at the midterms is anything to go the more people who participate in the election the more challenging it is for Trump.
Those midterms two year ago saw turnout move sharply from 41% to 52% and the Democrats ended up with an 8% national winning margin on votes as they swept to power in the House.
COVID19 has clearly made this into a totally different election than we are used to. Although Trump has taken part in quite a few gatherings the miniscule number of events has kept him away from the environment he likes – making big speeches to big audiences.
All the talk about “shy Trump backers” doesn’t quite fit with the way most polls are carried out these days – online. You are hardly going to be shy filling in a polling questionnaire.