Being a seasoned poll watcher occasionally you see some polling that shocks and disgusts you, for example when in 2017 a poll found 53% of Britons liked pineapple on pizza but this poll from America frightens me on so many levels, in a way no other poll ever has. 33% of of Democrats and 36% of Republicans feel justified in using violence to achieve their political goals, a staggering fourfold increase in just over three years. For a while I’ve…
OK. For a moment, I want us all to play a game. This is a very useful management technique I’ve learned, and it’s called the premortem. What I want us to do is to imagine it’s December 2020, and President Trump is re-elected – what did we get wrong, what were the signs we missed? Here are my three ways we could be wrong: We didn’t pay enough attention to approval ratings. President Trump’s approval rating has been steadily improving….
TSE
Sometimes it’s worth asking a QTWTAIN even when you know the answer The ancient Greeks gave us many things. Democracy. Really long poems. The kebab*. Proof by contradiction. Let’s combine two of them now, in a manner of speaking, to look at where the US election might be going in the light of Donald Trump contracting Covid-19. Everyone should be wishing Donald Trump well right now. Those who want him to win, for obvious reasons; those who want him to…
Punters think the day’s developments are good for Biden
CONHome poll blow for Boris The above data comes from the latest monthly survey by Conservative Home and shows a dramatic decline in the assessment of party members of Johnson’s handling of the crisis. From 92% saying he was dealing with it well in March the latest figure is down to just 28%. This, remember, comes from a group that you would expect to be loyal to the man that they elected as leader barely 15 months ago. Even in…
Betfair suspend next President market Big news in the last few minutes is that Trump has Tweeted that he and his wife have tested positive for coronavirus. This is what he wrote: Earlier in the night he had Tweeted that they were having a test. Clearly this will impact on the betting and Betfair have just suspended their next President market.
In the aftermath of the Tuesday night TV debate between Trump and Biden there has been a marked change in the betting on who will win November’s White House election. The chart of the Betfair exchange market is very clear and there is little doubt that many punters that have come to the conclusion that the challenger is set to win the November 3rd election. What has impressed me is how many senior Republicans have refused to back Trump on…