The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

The states that will decide WH2020 – polling averages from the key battlegrounds

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With the election just three weeks away way I thought it might be useful to have the above chart so we can monitor the latest polls in the states that will decide the election. The chart shows simply the average Biden polling lead as recorded in Fivethirtyeight.com. These are the states where almost all of the effort is being put in and where, of course, there are the most active betting markets. The number of state polls is unprecedented and…

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For all the talk in the past week of Biden landslide the spread betting markets have barely moved

For all the talk in the past week of Biden landslide the spread betting markets have barely moved

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But some movement on the exchanges Over the past week the message from both the national and the state level polls is that Joe Biden is doing very well indeed and if they’re right he will be the next President of the United States. Yet there still appears to be a lot of nervousness amongst punters on both the spread betting markets and exchanges suggest. The Sporting Index spread on Biden of 315-321 has barely moved and the exchanges are…

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Enemies within?

Enemies within?

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Not so long ago we had Islamists spouting vile rhetoric inspiring the young to slaughter innocents. The Choudhury’s and Abu Qatada’s of this world were quick to say they weren’t responsible. They carefully positioned themselves – just – on the right side of the line dividing hateful words and incitement to violence. Those doing the attacks came to their own views and, anyway, were only reacting to the bad stuff they had seen done to their “brothers”. Decent people (including politicians) were…

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A year is a long time in politics. Your regular reminder that the betting markets do get it wrong.

A year is a long time in politics. Your regular reminder that the betting markets do get it wrong.

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2019 was an absolute batshit crazy year wasn’t it? But then 2020 said hold my beer on the bat shit crazy front. Three of the top five in the Ladbrokes market on next PM a year ago were no longer MPs a little over two months later, betting markets can get it spectacularly wrong at times. TSE

If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

If Trumps wins next month, it’s the economy, stupid

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Looking at those key states, worth 55 electoral college votes that Trump won in 2016 it is understandable why people are talking now about a Biden victory but the size of it, but from those same polls there’s a sliver of optimism for Trump because the same polls that gives Biden hefty leads they also show this Now we’ve seen plenty of occasions across the world when the party leading the voting intention loses the election because they’ve trailed on…

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2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday

2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday

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It might seem odd that even before the 2020 election day that people would be betting on the 2024 race but it does give a chance to spot some value. Ladbrokes have a market up on who will win the 2024 Presidential election and on the Dem saide I’m quite taken with the 66/1 on Pete Buttigieg and 50/1 on Tom Cotton on the GOP side. If Biden loses next month his age alone must surely rule him out for…

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Hollow Men – the sidelining of parliament during the biggest health/economic crisis in modern times

Hollow Men – the sidelining of parliament during the biggest health/economic crisis in modern times

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In the film “Mrs Brown” there is a scene in Parliament where MPs are passing around a Tomahawk cartoon showing an empty throne captioned “Where is Britannia?” It’s a reference to widowed Queen Victoria’s long self-imposed isolation and its effect on good governance and support for the monarchy. A similar criticism could be made now – not of her great-great-grand-daughter – but of Parliament. During the biggest combined health and economic crisis of recent times, where is Parliament? Some Tory…

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