Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline

Women voters switching: the big driver behind Trump’s polling decline

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After the VP debate Trump used the word “monster” to describe Kamala Harris. A Trump campaign adviser Harlan Hill tweeted during event that Harris was an “insufferable lying bitch,” . This was even too much for Fox news which has banned him from appearing. All this, I’d argue, will help reinforce the big electoral dynamic of this campaign – seen in the Morning Consult polling in the Tweet above – the struggle the President has with women voters. Just about all…

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Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. US election special. Can Trump turn it around?

Ipsos MORI Politics + Society podcast. US election special. Can Trump turn it around?

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On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley is joined by Chris Jackson from Ipsos in the US and Ariel Edwards-Levy of the Huffington Post to take a deep-dive look at the upcoming US presidential election. Listen to the episode here: Topics discussed included: What’s driving Biden’s lead? How can Trump turn it around? Shy Trump voters / partisan non-response bias / turnout filters and other important polling points The states to watch Will we know the result on election day? Is…

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Biden backers unruffled by the overnight VP debate

Biden backers unruffled by the overnight VP debate

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Just three weeks and five days to go and overnight we have had the Vice Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Mike pence. I didn’t stay up to watch it but by all reports the biggest moment came when a fly landed on Pence’s head and seem to stay there for minutes. From the clips I’ve seen it looked a pretty even discussion and it is hard to see how this is going to change the trajectory of the race….

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Tonight’s big event in the White House race – The VP debate

Tonight’s big event in the White House race – The VP debate

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After an extraordinary good run of polls for Biden tonight sees the VP TV debate with Pence facing Kamala Harris. Given what’s happened with COVID over the past few days than I’d expect Harris to press Pence hard and to get him to disagree with Trump. She’s ample material to play with. Generally this debate does not get anything like the attention of the main debates but because of the ages of those at the top of the ticket there…

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How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19

How the polls moved since last week’s first debate and Trump contracting COVID-19

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In terms of the national polls Trump has taken a big hit over the past few days in the aftermath of his much criticised debate performance and his reaction to catching COVID-19. There’s a lot of discussion going on about comparing current polling with what happened at WH2020 when Trump was firs elected. I’d argue that a better comparison is the polling for the 2018 midterms – Trump’s first electoral test. The main thing that characterises that election was the…

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LET’S TALK LANDSLIDES

LET’S TALK LANDSLIDES

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Everything points to Biden winning big. Believe it. Why do we not believe the evidence in front of us? Sometimes it’s because we don’t want to accept the bad news it reveals; sometimes it’s because we daren’t believe the good news for fear of jinxing it; it may be that we had our fingers burnt by believing something similar in the past which then turned out differently; or maybe the outcome is so far from our experiences that it feels…

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On the spreads Biden has moved up from 281 ECVs a month ago to 313 this afternoon

On the spreads Biden has moved up from 281 ECVs a month ago to 313 this afternoon

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My main betting on the White House Race has been on the SportingIndex spread betting markets. I bought at 284 Electoral College Votes and the latest split is SELL 307 and BUY 313. So I could, if I wanted, get out of my position this afternoon and get 23 times my stake even if, in the election itself, Biden does worse than that. Of course if the polling continues to be as good for Biden as the latest CNN poll…

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New polling finds 44% prepared to pay more tax to cover costs of COVID19

New polling finds 44% prepared to pay more tax to cover costs of COVID19

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A wealth tax the most favoured way Given the huge extra government spending to deal with COVID19 and cover things like the billions which have gone on the test and trace system Ipsos-MORI finds 44% saying they are ready to pay more. But when it comes to what form of new taxation the preferred choice is a wealth tax that doesn’t exist at the moment. When asked who should pay a new wealth tax, the most popular is those with…

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