The polling gets tighter and tighter in Texas yet on Betfair Biden is still a 27% chance

The polling gets tighter and tighter in Texas yet on Betfair Biden is still a 27% chance

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Above is the latest chart from FiveThirtyEight of the polling trend in Texas – the state with 38 ECVs which of it itself would be enough to give Biden the Presidency. This is where there has seen an explosion in in-person early voting which the Republican governor was prevented by the courts from trying to impede. So far a colossal 6,391,021 have voted there with 5,603,359 of them voting in person. This represents more 70% of the total percent of…

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Why Isn’t Labour Cutting Through?

Why Isn’t Labour Cutting Through?

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The Shadow Chancellor’s response to Sunak’s updated support package this week was well made. Ms Dodds has been saying much the same these past few months, if sotto voce. Perhaps because of this – and despite Starmer generally getting the better of the PM at PMQs – Labour has not broken through in the polls. The Tories’ large leads have largely evaporated so that is something. But the question remains. Why hasn’t Labour made more of an impact? This government…

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If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men

If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men

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And that adds to Trump’s problems One of the features of this election which has been repeatedly observed is how poorly Trump is doing with women voters particularly those with college degrees. Four years ago that segment was mostly for Trump now its switched to Biden. Above is part of the demographic breakdown in this week’s NYT/Siena poll which shows the scale of the gender gap in this election. As can be observed Trump has a 6% lead amongst men…

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The post debate betting moves just a touch to Trump

The post debate betting moves just a touch to Trump

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The Smarkets chart shows how the Biden-Trump betting has moved following the debate and as can be seen punters are just a touch more confident about the incumbent but there’s really been very little movement. What is clear is that Trump’s attempted smear effort in relation to Biden’s son hasn’t really taken off. The campaign development that could possibly end up as the “October surprise” is the failure to find the parents of 545 migrant children who have been detained…

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The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer

The final debate: Trump better than last time but this was no game-changer

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Betting at 0415 BST Biden 66% Trump 34% I did not stay up to watch the debate but from the reactions I’ve managed to collate it is clear that Trump did better than the first debate but he scored no knockout blows against Biden. In the betting Trump edged up 2% and Biden dropped 2% on Betfair. This was from the verdict by Taegan Goddard at PoliticalWire: After the chaotic and mostly incoherent first presidential debate, Donald Trump’s advisers pleaded…

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As we go into the final WH2020 debate Biden edges up further in the betting

As we go into the final WH2020 debate Biden edges up further in the betting

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Overnight there is the last in the programme of TV debates between Trump and Biden. There were going to be three of them but Trump would not agree to the terms set out by the independent debates commission which meant second one did not take place. Tonight’s event includes a new feature – the contenders will be muted while the other is making statements. This comes at a time when maybe a third of Americans have already voted with in…

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Where are the defectors?

Where are the defectors?

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From longstanding PBer & former LAB MP Nick Palmer I’ve been active in politics for over 50 years, and some things stay the same. The traditional themes – the economy, the NHS, relations with Europe. The reductionist media, simplifying every election to a choice of leaders. The conviction that the current moment is exceptional, and nothing will ever be the same again. But one traditional element has been missing in recent years. It used to be quite common for politicians…

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At the 2018 midterms, the last time US pollsters were tested in national elections, the Democrat margin was 1.1% better than predicted

At the 2018 midterms, the last time US pollsters were tested in national elections, the Democrat margin was 1.1% better than predicted

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  Twelve days before what has become the biggest political betting event of all time it is worth reminding ourselves at how well US pollsters performed the last time they were tested in a real set of elections. The above Real Clear Politics table gives quite a degree of confidence. The main elections taking place in November 2018 were for the House and as can be seen most of the final polls were in the right territory having Democratic margins…

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