Best of three. What of a fresh Scottish independence referendum?

Best of three. What of a fresh Scottish independence referendum?

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As Sting once sang, you can’t control an independent heart.  Boris Johnson, however, seems set to try.  In the face of opinion polls showing that the SNP are heading for an overall majority at Holyrood with a mandate for a fresh referendum on Scottish independence, he is giving every impression of a man who intends not to agree to one being held.   Scotland is not yet a colony of Westminster.  If, however, the UK government tries to block the clearly-expressed…

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Sturgeon’s planned “go it alone” IndyRef2 poses problems for the bookies as well as Boris

Sturgeon’s planned “go it alone” IndyRef2 poses problems for the bookies as well as Boris

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 Sturgeon’s statement yesterday that she intends to hold what she describes as a “legal referendum” on independence from the UK if she wins the Scottish elections scheduled for May certainly puts her on a collision course with Boris who opposes opposes another secession vote. All the signs from the polling suggest the SNP is on course for another big victory in the Scottish Parliament elections so the chances are that Sturgeon’s referendum plan could be a reality. Her argument is that…

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Is Biden going to honour his commitment to make Washington DC a state in its own right?

Is Biden going to honour his commitment to make Washington DC a state in its own right?

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In the betting its an 80% chance that it won’t happen this year One of the policy commitments that all the Democratic primary challengers were pressed on last year was whether they supported the campaign to make Washington DC a state in its own right. Biden agreed. The main case is that the district has a larger population than two other states but lacks any voting members in Congress. Also its residents pay more in federal taxes than roughly 20…

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MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

MRP ELECTION MODELLING: HOW USEFUL IS IT OUTSIDE OF AN ELECTION PERIOD?

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When YouGov published their multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) election model during the 2017 General Election campaign, it’s fair to say that it was met with a great deal of scepticism (though not from Alastair Meeks). Sure, expectations about the size of the Conservative majority had been scaled back, but a hung-parliament? Labour gain Canterbury? No chance… In the end the Tories did a little bit better than the model predicted and Theresa May clung on to power. But the…

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Never! The DUP’s tragic journey from Ian Paisley to King Lear

Never! The DUP’s tragic journey from Ian Paisley to King Lear

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The DUP’s whole raison d’être is to preserve the union.  It has throughout its history set its face against every compromise with nationalists that might lead to further entanglement with the Republic of Ireland (their older supporters will still spit out references to “the Free State”, as if it were the Federation in Blake’s Seven).  Though you wouldn’t know it to listen to them now, they fiercely opposed the Good Friday Agreement. In 2016, they decided to take a holiday…

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My 250/1 longshot for WH2024 showing a flair for publicity that could take him a long way

My 250/1 longshot for WH2024 showing a flair for publicity that could take him a long way

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On the weekend after the presidential election in November I took a bet at 250/1 with Ladbrokes that Jon Ossoff would win the 2024 the next White House race. This was a wild longshot based on the impressions I had got of him during his campaign for the Senate seat in Georgia. It will be recalled that he had got close enough in November for it to be run off in January which turned out to be a gain for…

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Senedd shake-up: what happens if Welsh Labour lose their majority?

Senedd shake-up: what happens if Welsh Labour lose their majority?

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No permutation looks a natural fit Elections: remember them? For most of the country, they’ve become a distant memory. Aside from a handful of council by-elections in Scotland in the autumn, there’s been nothing for ten months. They are, however, due to return with a vengeance in May with elections for some or all of 149 English councils, plus 13 mayors (including London and all the large combined-authorities), 40 Police & Crime Commissioners, the London Assembly, Scottish Parliament and Welsh…

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On Betfair the odds on Trump being convicted drop below 20%

On Betfair the odds on Trump being convicted drop below 20%

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Several developments on the Trump impeachment move which has already been backed by the House. This of course is the biggest current political betting market where the move has been further to Trump not being convicted by the necessary two thirds majority of Senators present when it comes to the vote. The GOP Senate leader, who has been highly critical of the ex-President, Mitch McConnell, is trying to put the timing of the hearing back to February which it is…

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