All the signs from the polling suggest the SNP is on course for another big victory in the Scottish Parliament elections so the chances are that Sturgeon’s referendum plan could be a reality.
Her argument is that Brexit which has taken Scotland out of the EU against its will changes everything. By a narrow majority of UK voters opted to leave the EU but a large majority in Scotland voted to stay.
The betting exchanges have growing markets on whether there will be such a vote though, be warned, the market rules can be different.
On the Smarkets “Year of next Scottish referendum” Sturgeon’s referendum plan would seem to be covered.
The market will be settled for the year in which the next Scottish referendum on Independence takes place. Any referendum on any part of Scottish independence will count as a referendum in this market. If no referendum takes place before 2025 then the 2025 contract will be settled as the winner.
But Betfair has it differently:
When will a legally authorised referendum next take place on Scottish independence? This market will be settled at the start of voting on the day of the referendum. This market will be settled as “Not before 2025” at 00:00 on 1st January 2025 if no referendum takes place before this time.
The question is what would “legally authorised referendum” mean if the Scottish Parliament approve such a move but Westminster won’t back it.
If you think this is going to happen within the timetable then the Smarkets approach seems to be best for the avoidance of doubt.