politicalbetting.com – Page 480 – The web's premier resource for political betting.

Why the boundary changes probably matter less than you think

8/2/2021 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Sisyphus was happy, reckoned Albert Camus. The Boundary Commissioners may have their own view on this: for the third time they are being asked to come up with new proposals. Their proposals for 2012 and 2018 both came to nothing. They are now beavering away on their proposals for 2024. Boundary reviews get wonks very excited. By and large, they should simmer down. They’re not half as important as is assumed, particularly for Labour and the Conservatives. Here’s why. Notional…

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How do you solve a solution like the Northern Ireland Protocol?

7/2/2021 TSE Comments 0 Comment

Much like getting your girlfriend pregnant on a pull out sofa there’s a deep sense of irony that the Conservative & Unionist Party, aided and abetted by the DUP, have via Brexit done more to weaken Northern Ireland’s place in the United Kingdom than the IRA. As we can see from Northern Ireland pollster LucidTalk, 77% of all voters in the province and 67% of DUP voters think Boris Johnson’s Northern Ireland protocol will weaken Northern Ireland position in the…

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Can Labour ever win again?

7/2/2021 Editor Comments 0 Comment

Labour has lost the last four general elections. It has not won the popular vote in England since 2001; twenty years ago. We can go further: aside from the landslide Blair victories of 1997 and 2001 Labour has not comfortably won 40%+ of the vote since 1970; over fifty years ago. Labour is not in power in Westminster or Scotland. It may shortly lose (or be forced to share) power in Wales. It does not directly control any county councils…

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What will Scotland’s historic victory Rugby victory do to the push for independence?

6/2/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Judging by the last thread many PBers have spent the last few hours watching the opening matches in this year’s Six Nations. Given the proximity of the Scottish Parliament elections due for the first week of May I wonder whether Scotland’s first victory over England at Twickenham in 38 years is going to have a political impact. A former colleague of mine at the LSE in the 1990s was working on a thesis that linked the sporting success of Scotland…

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A fractured SNP will struggle to campaign at full-throttle

6/2/2021 David Herdson Comments 0 Comment

The Salmond fall-out, trans rights and factionalism will be hindrances in the campaign for independence If you lose your head, it’s all over. Not quite what one Scot (who was at the time an Egyptian-born Spaniard), said to another (though that one was American), but it might as well have been. Wise words to an immortal; wiser still to a politician – and ones that Scottish nationalists would do well to reflect on. The SNP has dominated Scottish politics for…

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New US poll finds that if Trump decides to set up a new party 64% of Republicans would back it

5/2/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Even though he lost his party the White House last November and faces the coming impeachment trial before the Senate a new Hill-Harris finds strong backing for Trump amongst registered Republicans. The split is in the chart above. Amongst independents 28% would back it was would 15% of Democrats Last month, it was reported that Trump had floated the idea of starting a new political party but as yet no concrete plan has emerged. Dritan Nesho, CEO and chief pollster…

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Why I am betting that Joe Biden will NOT be the Democratic nominee in 2024

5/2/2021 Mike Smithson Comments 0 Comment

Even though it is just over a fortnight since Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th president of the United States the betting has opened on who will be the nominees for the parties and, of course, the winner in 2024. As can be seen on Smarkets which has a slightly bigger market at this stage than Betfair, Biden is rated as just a 25% chance. Historically this is quite remarkable because generally speaking the strong favourite after an…

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A Suggestion on Political Reform

4/2/2021 Editor Comments 0 Comment

1) An elected executive based on defined positions such as Education, Health, Police, Immigration etc. where each position is directly elected after: Candidates are winnowed down to three runners. Each has their specific proposals costed by the Civil Service. Each proposal has to have a statement of the improvement it is expected to bring and a tangible way of measuring progress along with expected timescales. Measurement to be done by the Civil Service. The advantage of this approach is that…

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